Lynx vs. Aces Prediction, Odds and Key Players for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

Can the Minnesota Lynx cover again as underdogs against the Las Vegas Aces?
Las Vegas Aces guard Kelsey Plum (10) drives the ball against Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier.
Las Vegas Aces guard Kelsey Plum (10) drives the ball against Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Lynx – not the Las Vegas Aces – have the best record in the Western Conference heading into Tuesday night’s WNBA Commissioner’s Cup matchup. 

These teams met earlier this season in Minnesota, with the Aces winning by 14 points, but Las Vegas is coming off a bad loss to the Los Angeles Sparks and is just 5-4 on the season.

Meanwhile, Napheesa Collier and the Lynx ended the Seattle Storm’s six-game winning streak on Sunday, riding a 32-point game from Kayla McBride. 

Minnesota is an underdog in this game with Jackie Young expected back in the lineup for the Aces, but are oddsmakers giving them enough respect for this strong start to the 2024 season?

Let’s break down the odds, key players to watch, and my favorite bet for this Commissioner’s Cup showdown.

Lynx vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total


  • Lynx +6.5 (-108)
  • Aces -6.5 (-112)


  • Lynx: +240
  • Aces: -298


  • 165.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Lynx vs. Aces How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, June 11
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
  • How to watch (TV): NBA TV
  • Lynx record: 8-3
  • Aces record: 5-4

Lynx vs. Aces Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

  • Diamond Miller – out
  • Dorka Juhasz – day-to-day

Aces Injury Report

  • Kierstan Bell – out
  • Chelsea Gray – out

Lynx vs. Aces Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: Keep the Napheesa Collier WNBA MVP conversation going! With the Lynx leading the West at 8-3, Collier has been elite, averaging 21.4 points, 11.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Collier has eight double-doubles in 11 games so far this season. 

Las Vegas Aces

A’ja Wilson: With Chelsea Gray out, A’ja Wilson has picked up the slack, averaging 28.3 points and 11.8 rebounds per game this season. Since May 25, Wilson has at least 28 points in every game, and she’s scored over 20 in every matchup this season. Wilson gave the Lynx 29 points and 15 rebounds in a 14-point win earlier this season. 

Lynx vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

I really love getting a chance to take the Lynx as road underdogs on Tuesday.

Minnesota is an impressive 4-1 against the spread as a road team and 5-1 against the spread as an underdog in the 2024 season, two of the best marks in the league. The Aces, on the other hand, are just 1-4 ATS at home. 

It’s shocking to see Las Vegas struggle this much in 2024, but the team doesn’t have as much depth as previous years with Bell and Gray out of the lineup right now. 

Getting Young back will help, but the Aces rank just seventh in the WNBA in defensive rating this season, which should be a concern against a Lynx team that is No. 3 in offensive rating and No. 2 in defensive rating. 

Wilson has been impossible to stop this season, but the Aces have lost back-to-back games to Seattle and Los Angeles.

They may not lose tonight, but this is way too many points to give a Lynx team that has proven it is one of the best in the league so far in 2024. 

Pick: Lynx +6.5 (-108)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Peter Dewey


Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.