Lynx vs. Sparks Prediction, Odds and Key Players for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

Can the Lynx continue their impressive run against the spread?

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier (24) dribbles the ball. / Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports

Through the first few weeks of the WNBA season, there hasn’t been a better team to bet on than the Minnesota Lynx, 6-2 record on the year.

Minnesota is on the road on Wednesday night to take on the 2-6 Los Angeles Sparks and No. 2 overall pick Cameron Brink in a WNBA Commissioner’s Cup matchup. 

Led by MVP candidate Napheesa Collier, the Lynx are not only a league-best 7-1 against the spread, but they rank third in offensive, defensive and net rating on the year.

Things haven’t gone as smoothly for the Sparks, who have the fourth-worst net rating in the WNBA and have won just one of four games at home in 2024. 

Minnesota is favored for just the third time all season – this time by 7.5 points – as it looks to remain atop the Western Conference.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Wednesday’s contest: 

Lynx vs. Sparks Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Lynx -7.5 (-112)
• Sparks +7.5 (-108)

Moneyline 

• Lynx: -325
• Sparks: +260

Total

• 158 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Lynx vs. Sparks How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 5
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena
• How to watch (TV): WNBA League Pass
• Lynx record: 6-2
• Sparks record: 2-6

Lynx vs. Sparks Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

• Diamond Miller – out

Sparks Injury Report

• Layshia Clarendon – out
• Azura Stevens – out
• Lexie Brown – day-to-day

Lynx vs. Sparks Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: An MVP candidate this season, Collier is off to a terrific start for the Lynx. The UConn product is averaging 21.4 points, 11.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 47.4 percent from the field. Collier is also an elite defender, tallying 2.5 steals and 1.8 blocks per game. It’ll be interesting to see who she guards on this Sparks team that has multiple solid options in the frontcourt. 

Los Angeles Sparks

Dearica Hamby: A two-time All-Star, Hamby is thriving in a lead role for the Sparks this season, averaging 20.9 points, 11.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game while shooting 54.8 percent from the field. Hamby has scored at least 17 points in every Sparks game this season while putting up 20+ on four occasions. 

Lynx vs. Sparks Prediction and Pick

There are a lot of things to like about this Sparks team despite its record, as rookie Rickea Jackson is averaging 10.0 points per game and Hamby is one of the best post players in the W. 

However, the Sparks have not paid off bettors in a way that they’d like, going just 2-5-1 against the spread on the season and 0-3-1 against the spread at home. 

Outside of Hamby, the Sparks lack a secondary scorer (Kia Nurse is second on the team in points per game at 13.0), and Los Angeles ranks in the bottom five in the league in both offensive and defensive rating. 

On the Minnesota side, Collier has been the driving force to the team’s 6-2 start (7-1 ATS), but Kayla McBride (16.0 points per game), Alanna Smith (12.9 points per game) and Courtney Williams (11.5 points per game) are all averaging double figures so far in 2024. 

The Lynx are a perfect 2-0 ATS when favored this season and an impressive 3-0 ATS on the road. While the market seems to have adjusted for them being one of the league’s top teams this season, I still think they can run away with a win over this young Sparks team. 

Both of these teams come into Wednesday’s game in the top three in the league in effective field goal percentage, but the Sparks have a glaring weakness on the offensive end that has doomed them all season…

… they rank dead last in turnover percentage at 22.7 percent. 

If that issue persists, I have a hard time thinking they’ll hang around with the No. 3 defense in the league, especially since Hamby and Nurse have been the only two options they can count on for scoring on a nightly basis. 

Pick: Lynx -7.5 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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