Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction and Odds for Australian Open Semifinals

Reed Wallach | Jan 22, 2025

Mar 17, 2024; Indian Wells, CA, USA; Iga Swaitek (POL) celebrates at match point defeating Maria Sakkari (GRE) in the women’s final of the BNP Paribas open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Iga Swiatek’s quest is back in the Australian Open semi-finals for the first time since 2022 in hopes of winning her first Grand Slam title down under. 

The World No. 2 will face American Madison Keys in the semifinals on Thursday after a dominant run through her bracket to re-enter the semifinals. Her opponent, Keys, is into the semifinals for the third time in her career after rallying to beat Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals in three sets. 

Keys had an injury-riddled 2024, but appears primed for a big 2025, can she start it with an appearance in a Grand Slam final?

Here’s our betting preview for this one.  

Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Keys: +5.5 (-120)
• Swiatek: -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Keys: +400
• Swiatek: -550

Total: 19.5 (Over -118/Under -112)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, January 23th
• Game Time: 5:30 AM EST
• Venue: Rod Laver Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction and Pick

Swiatek has been in firm control of this series, winning four of five matches against Keys. 

In all four wins, Swiatek has won in straight sets, but it's worth noting that she has only beaten Keys once on hard courts. The other wins have come on clay, where Swiatek is the best player in the world by a wide margin. 

So, can Keys hang on the hard court surface at a place that Swiatek has still yet to break through despite an already decorated career? 

However, this has been the best she has ever looked in Melbourne, dropping only 14 total games through five matches. She is fresh off a dominant quarterfinal victory against Emma Navarro, losing only three games in two sets. 

Swiatek will be able to extend rallies against Keys, who needs to turn around after a near-two-hour match against Svitolina. Does she have enough in the gas tank to keep up with the in-form Swiatek? 

I don’t think so, I’ll take the Polish No. 2 player in the world to win in straight sets. 

PICK: Swiatek -1.5 Sets (-168)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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