March Madness 2025: Handicapping NCAA Tournament Field with KenPom

Reed Wallach | Mar 3, 2025

Mar 1, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) breaks around Florida State Seminoles forward Jerry Deng (7) during the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Blue Devils won 100-65. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images / Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

There is one week left in the regular season, and the college basketball landscape continues to take shape. 

For some teams, like Tennessee and Alabama, each team is gunning for a No. 1 seed and a projected easier path through the NCAA Tournament, while the likes of Auburn and Duke are looking to fortify their standing as the betting favorite come March Madness with accolades coming into focus. 

As I’ve laid out weekly since the start of the new year, I’m looking forward to the NCAA Tournament by creating filters for a majority of the contenders with an eye on finding teams that follow a similar profile as historical title-winning teams. 

Here is the baseline for the three tables you are going to read through below. 

KenPom, the advanced metric website that is gospel for college basketball bettors, has been compiling stats since 1999, which you can find here. 

Over the past two-plus decades, KenPom has become the market maker for college basketball; the website's metrics also help indicate overall team quality. There is the team’s overall adjusted efficiency metric as well as one for offense and defense (among others) that is a catch-all metric for how to rate teams.

Dating back to 2002, all but two teams have been inside KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive metrics top 20. The teams that win it all are not only elite but are balanced and able to win in different ways more times than not.

The two teams that didn’t are 2014 Connecticut, paced by a sensational run from Shabazz Napier, and 2021 Baylor, who had a mid-season blip that weighed down the team’s overall rating. 

With that in mind, I like to make three groups of teams: a group that fits the mold right now of being top 20 on both offense and defense, a group that is slightly below that, top 40 on both sides of the ball, and a team that is top 20 on one side, but outside the top 50 on the other.

The betting market has moved throughout the season to reflect a lot of what you are going to see below, with the title contenders showing their dominance throughout the season and at the top of the odds when looking at the NCAA Tournament Futures list.

However, it’s the glut of teams in the middle that are nearing title-contending thresholds that could be primed for deep March Madness runs and worthy of a bet at longer odds. As always, I close this week’s notebook with a look at teams that I will be itching to fade come the bracket reveal with its uneven play. 

While these numbers are always fluid, I’m using Monday as a snapshot to assess where we stand at the start of the last week of the regular season. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on Monday, March 3rd

2025 March Madness Preview

National Championship Contenders

Team	Record	KenPom Rank	Bracket Matrix Projected Seed	KenPom adjO Rank	KenPom adjD Rank	Title Odds
Duke	26-3	1	1	2	2	+350
Auburn	27-2	2	1	1	10	+320
Houston	25-4	3	1	8	3	+850
Florida	25-4	4	1	4	7	+950
Arizona	19-10	13	4	18	18	+4000

This is a static group that I have written about ad nauseam over the past several weeks. To me, the top four teams in this group are of no shock to anyone; these are the top four teams in the country and should be treated as such. 

However, as we continue to build data up to the NCAA Tournament, Duke is a cut above Auburn heading into the NCAA Tournament for me. 

Yes, the Tigers have an explosive offense and a vaunted frontcourt that propel its defense, but I see more avenues to the Blue Devils handling the rigors of the NCAA Tournament. 

Now, the status of Tyrese Proctor is going to be impactful, but it seems he’ll be back with plenty of time before the start of the ‘Big Dance,’ but it’s Duke’s defense that has me thinking this team needs to be the favorite. 

The Blue Devils' defense around the versatile Flagg and big man Khaman Maluach makes me bullish that the team can keep down any opposing offense. The group ranks third in two-point field goal percentage allowed while also containing the three-point line at an elite rate. Teams are shooting 30% on three-pointers on about a national three-point rate. 

I do believe there are some concerns about Duke’s late-game offense and the state of the ACC with the likes of North Carolina down this year. The team doesn’t have a traditional point guard and has lost some games late to the likes of Kentucky, Kansas, and Clemson with poor execution, but given the team’s overwhelming consistency, it’s too tough of an out. I'm looking for consistency in the NCAA Tournament, and I believe Duke is built to weather storms on all fronts.

The Blue Devils are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage while taking more than 45% of their shots from beyond the and second on defense. 

Meanwhile, Auburn’s offense bolters a ton of upside, but it's defense has some warts, including an opponent free throw rate outside the top 300 and a defensive rebounding rate that is bottom three in SEC play. The team has depth and experience, but I fear it won’t be as routine as SEC competition has been for the team and that the group’s defense can be its fatal flaw.

I expect these two to be the top two seeds come Selection Sunday, but I view them quite differently as I gear up for the tourney. 

Team	Record	KenPom Rank	Bracket Matrix Projected Seed	KenPom adjO Rank	KenPom adjD Rank	Natty Odds
Tennessee	24-5	5	2	27	1	+1300
Alabama	23-6	6	1	3	37	+1300
Texas Tech	22-7	7	4	9	29	+3000
Gonzaga	23-8	8	9	7	36	+6500
Michigan State	24-5	9	2	32	5	+2500
Wisconsin	22-7	10	2	11	31	+5000
Iowa State	22-7	11	3	21	9	+2000
Maryland	22-7	14	5	28	12	+5000
Clemson	24-5	17	5	17	24	+6500
Illinois	19-11	19	8	14	34	+8000
Saint Mary's	27-4	20	6	39	11	+10000
Marquette	22-7	23	5	30	20	+10000
Louisville	23-6	24	6	24	25	+10000
Ole Miss	20-9	26	7	33	23	+10000
Michigan	22-7	29	4	40	22	+10000
Oregon	21-8	33	6	35	40	+15000

Michigan State can seemingly do no wrong, poised to win the Big Ten regular season title and be on the No. 2 seed line in the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not rushing to get involved with Sparty come March. 

Tom Izzo’s group has plenty of depth and a promising freshman in Jase Richardson, but I can’t look past the team’s three-point shooting splits when assessing its title-winning equity. 

Michigan State is 347th in the country in three-point percentage on a bottom 30 rate but has offset that dismal mark with the fourth lowest three-point percentage allowed in the country. Opponents are shooting 28% from beyond the arc this season against the Spartans, and that’s even lower in Big Ten play as teams are shooting just 26%. I don't see this holding up across six games to cut down the nets.

Michigan State is a fine team, tops in the country in rebounding percentage, but I’m not sold on the team due to its wild three-point offense and defense. 

However, another Big Ten team that has my eye in this group, and one that I haven’t written about to date, is Oregon. 

The Ducks are on a five-game winning streak after losing five in a row, as the team seems to be hitting its stride ahead of the postseason. 

The team’s KenPom-related metrics aren’t overwhelming, but the group has played a brutal schedule while also adjusting to cross-country travel in conference play as part of the new Big Ten. Further, this includes non-conference games against the likes of Texas A&M and Alabama on a neutral floor, both wins for the Ducks. 

Oregon is an experienced group around big man Nate Bittle and lead guard Jackson Shelstad that is led by head coach Dana Altman and his unique defensive scheme that could make this team a dangerous team down the board in the NCAA Tournament but going off at extremely long prices in the Futures market due to some streaky play throughout Big Ten action.

Team	Record	KenPom Rank	Bracket Matrix Projected Seed	KenPom adjO Rank	KenPom adjD Rank	Title Odds
Missouri	21-8	12	5	5	57	+5000
St. John's	26-4	15	3	71	2	+2500
Purdue	20-9	16	4	10	51	+6500
Kansas	19-10	21	6	59	6	+8000
Texas A&M	20-9	22	3	54	8	+5000
BYU	21-8	25	8	12	67	+8000
Baylor	17-12	30	10	15	61	+15000
UCONN	20-9	36	8	13	108	+8000
Vanderbilt	20-9	38	9	19	79	+15000
San Diego State	20-7	41	10	109	13	+30000
Arkansas	17-12	42	11	94	16	+30000
West Virginia	17-12	53	10	121	15	+50000
Villanova	18-12	54	N/A	20	113	+50000
Utah State	24-6	56	9	16	153	+50000
UC-Irvine	25-5	71	N/A	208	14	+100000

These are teams I’m not interested in come tournament time. While a team like Alabama was part of this group last season and went to the Final Four, it’s typically a group of teams I look to fade in the NCAA Tournament due to its over-reliance on one side of the ball. 

It’s why I’m not buying BYU’s recent surge. 

The Cougars have won five straight in Big 12 play and will enter postseason play with a ton of perceived momentum, but a lot of it is baked into sound shot making that has offset a ton of other red flags, namely on defense. 

The Cougars lead Big 12 play in effective field goal percentage, offsetting its national average turnover rate on offense and its shaky defense. The Cougars' defense is painfully average, outside the top 150 in effective field goal percentage allowed and turnover percentage while getting torched from three. Opponents are shooting about 35% from beyond the arc against the Cougars this season, 234th nationally. 

BYU may become a trendy name ahead of the NCAA Tournament, but a lot of it is ripe to come crashing down in the middle of March when its outlier shot-making inevitably goes cold. 

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