Mariners vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, May 16

Sean Treppedi | May 16, 2025

Cal Raleigh has been one of the game's best power hitters in 2025 and he offers tremendous value with his bases prop against a rookie pitcher on May 16. / John Froschauer-Imagn Images

The Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres kick off a three-game series on Friday, May 16, with both teams heading in opposite directions. 

The Mariners are looking to bounce back after dropping their last two series, while the Padres enter this matchup riding momentum from back-to-back series wins. 

On the mound, Seattle hands the ball to Logan Evans (1-1, 3.60 ERA), who’s shown promise in his early outings. He’ll be opposed by Stephen Kolek (2-0, 0.00 ERA), who has yet to allow a run this season and aims to keep that streak alive in his third start.

I’ll relay my thoughts on how to play the oddsboard with a player to target and a prediction for this interleague West Coast series opener.

Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mariners +1.5 (-170)
• Padres -1.5  (+140)

Moneyline

• Mariners (+130)
• Padres (-154)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-115)
• Under 8.5 (-105)

Mariners vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Mariners: Logan Evans (1-1, 3.60 ERA)
• Padres: Stephen Kolek (2-0, 0.00 ERA)

Mariners vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Friday, May 16
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): Apple TV+
• Mariners Record: 23-19
• Padres Record: 27-15

Mariners vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Cal Raleigh to Record Over 1.5 Bases (+115 at FanDuel)

Cal Raleigh has already launched 13 home runs through 182 plate appearances. According to Statcast, he’s hitting with a 22.2% barrel rate and a .577 expected slug percentage, both of which amongst the league’s elite.

Padres right-hander Stephen Kolek hasn’t been particularly strong against left-handed power, which welcomes potential problems against one of the league’s top hitters this season.

The rookie has done admirably in limiting hard contact through his three starts since getting recalled from Triple-A, though he is still giving up 2.25 home runs per nine innings and has yet to pitch at Petco Park this season. 

I’m taking Seattle’s best power hitter to cash in on Kolek’s inexperience Friday. He's pulled much of his weight on the road this season, batting .286 in contrast to a .217 home average, so this kind of value should be seized.

Mariners vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

On that note, I don’t favor Evans enough in this matchup to bet a side comfortably. He’s also had limited action since being promoted from Triple-A. Evans has looked sound in that time, pitching five innings in all three of his starts while also keeping hard-hit balls in check. 

The Mariners’ pitching staff overall has been shaky, ranking No. 20 in ERA (4.02) and allowing 42 home runs and 190 total runs. Plus, their bullpen has struggled in high-leverage spots, blowing 8 of 22 save chances. 

Meanwhile, the Padres' offense makes consistent contact and ranks 11th in runs per game (4.67) with a strong .264 team batting average and .333 OBP. 

In fact both of these teams have been amongst the game’s most efficient run generators as they sit within the top-10 clubs in weighted runs created plus, which measures offensive production while factoring in external elements such as ballparks. 

Between these two offenses both facing novice pitchers, there is lots of run potential in San Diego.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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