Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 8

The Mariners are road underdogs on Tuesday.

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has led the team toa. 7-3 record in his 10 starts in 2025. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees are currently separated by just one game in the AL wild card standings, but these teams are trending in different directions.

New York has dropped seven of its last 10 games, falling behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East by 3.5 games entering Tuesday's series opener. New York did avoid a sweep at the hands of the New York Mets on Sunday, but it has not played well at all to start July.

Meanwhile, the Mariners have won seven of their last 10 games and have righty Logan Gilbert back in the rotation after he missed all of May and most of June with an injury.

Gilbert is on the mound in this series opener against Yankees righty Will Warren, who enters this start with a 5.02 ERA in the 2025 season.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, players to bet on in the prop market, and my prediction for Tuesday’s action. 

Mariners vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mariners +1.5 (-187)
• Yankees -1.5 (+152)

Moneyline

• Mariners: +113
• Yankees: -137

Total

• 9 (Over -107/Under -114)

Mariners vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Seattle: Logan Gilbert (2-2, 3.40 ERA)
• New York: Will Warren (5-4, 5.02 ERA)

Mariners vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 8
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): YES, ROOT Sports NW
• Mariners record: 48-42
• Yankees record: 49-41

Mariners vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBIs (-135)

The AL MVP favorite, Judge, has thrived against Gilbert in his career, going 4-for-13 (.308) with two doubles and four walks. Judge has an OPS of .962 against Gilbert, and I’m betting on him to add to that on Tuesday.

The Yankees star has been elite all season long, hitting .360 with the most hits in MLB and the most runs batted in and runs scored in the AL. 

He’s hitting .460 over the last week (six games), registering nine hits, seven runs batted in, and seven runs scored during that stretch. 

Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

The Yankees are an extremely tough team to trust right now, given their recent slide, especially with Warren on the mound.

The young righty allowed 10 hits and eight runs in his first start this month, pushing his ERA over 5.00 in the 2025 season. His expected ERA is much better (3.64), but he’s posted an actual 6.42 ERA over his last seven starts.

New York’s offense is No. 1 in the league in OPS, but the bullpen and pitching staff for the Yankees have fallen off. New York now has a 4.03 bullpen ERA, which may not cut it against a Seattle team that has Gilbert on the mound and a 3.57 bullpen ERA backing him up.

The Mariners are 7-3 in Gilbert’s 10 starts this season, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they upset this reeling Yankees team on Tuesday. 

Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+113 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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