Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, May 12

The Cubs are massive favorites at home in their series opener with Miami.

Chicago Cubs right fielder Kyle Tucker is a great prop target on Monday. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Miami Marlins have the second-worst run differential in the National League heading into Monday’s series opener with the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs.

This is going to be a tough series for the Marlins, and the odds for Monday’s game reflect that. The Cubs are -258 favorites to pick up a win at home, even though they are just 10-9 at Wrigley Field this season.

A big issue for Miami is Monday’s starting pitcher, as Cal Quantrill has a 7.11 ERA in the 2025 season and has given up four or more runs in over half of his starts. He’ll take on Cubs righty Colin Rea, who began the season as a bullpen arm but has made several starts since.

Can Rea, who has a sub-3.00 ERA, lead the Cubbies to a Game 1 win?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this National League matchup. 

Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Marlins +1.5 (-102)
• Cubs -1.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Marlins: +210
• Cubs: -258

Total

• 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Marlins vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

• Miami: Cal Quantrill (2-3, 7.11 ERA)
• Chicago: Colin Rea (2-0, 2.43 ERA)

Marlins vs. Cubs How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 12
• Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• How to Watch (TV): MARQ, FDSFL
• Marlins record: 15-24
• Cubs record: 23-18

Marlins vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

• Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+425)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why this is a great matchup for Cubs slugger Kyle Tucker:

Another player with 10 homers this season, Kyle Tucker has been great in his first season with the Chicago Cubs.

The lefty is hitting .269 overall, and he has a terrific matchup on Monday against a pitcher he’s fared well against in his career.

Chicago is taking on the Miami Marlins and starter Cal Quantrill, who Tucker is 3-for-4 with a homer against in limited at bats. Quantrill has been awful in 2025, posting a 7.11 ERA in seven outings.

He’s also given up five homers during that stretch. Tucker has been solid against right-handed pitching in 2025, hitting .270 with six of his homers. Plus, this Miami bullpen could concede a homer as well, as it has given 21 so far in 2025. 

Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Run line bets are tough to make, but I have to fade Quantrill in this matchup against a Cubs offense that ranks: 

• Fourth in OPS
• Second in runs scored
• Fifth in hits
• 10th in batting average

Quantrill did allow just one run in his last outing, but before that, he’d given up four or more earned runs in three straight. The righty ranks in the 10th percentile in expected ERA and the sixth percentile in expected batting average against, per Statcast.

Meanwhile, Rea is in the 52nd percentile in expected ERA and has led the Cubs to a 4-1 record in the five starts he’s made in the 2025 season.

The Cubbies are just one game over .500 on the run line in 2025, but they have way too big of an advantage on offense to bet against at home. 

Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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