Marlins vs. Giants Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, June 26

Sean Treppedi | Jun 26, 2025

Wilmer Flores has had a frustrating season, but we're backing his matchup against the Marlins' pitching strategy on Thursday. / Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

The lines have moved in the Marlins’ direction since yesterday’s 8-5 victory over the Giants.

Otto Lopez delivered the go-ahead RBI single during a four-run 10th inning to secure back-to-back series victories for Miami for the first time this season.

The Marlins are still significant underdogs heading into Thursday’s series finale. 

Janson Junk (2-0, 2.61 ERA) makes his second start of the season for the Marlins since being plucked from the bullpen. He’s coming off a strong five-inning, one-run win over the Braves and carrying a solid stretch of form with just one walk and 10 strikeouts over his last 14.2 innings.

The Giants deploy Hayden Birdsong (3-1, 3.25 ERA), who is looking to bounce back from a rough outing against Boston. He’s been solid at Oracle Park overall and held the Marlins to one run over 5.1 innings in a win earlier this month.

Here’s our player prop and game prediction for the matchup.

Marlins vs. Giants Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Marlins +1.5 (-140)
• Giants -1.5 (+116)

Moneyline

• Marlins (+160)
• Giants (-190)

Total

• Over 7.5 (-120)
• Under 7.5 (-102)

Marlins vs. Giants Probable Pitchers

• Marlins: Janson Junk (2-0, 2.60 ERA)
• Giants: Hayden Birdsong (3-1, 3.25 ERA)

Marlins vs. Giants How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 26, 2025
• Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
• Venue: Oracle Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCS BA, FDSN Florida
• Marlins Record: 33-45
• Giants Record: 44-36

Marlins vs. Giants Best MLB Prop Bet

•  Wilmer Flores Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 at FanDuel)

Flores is 0-for-1 against Junk and has batted a miserable .118 against Miami this year. So why would I back his bases prop on Thursday?

While he’s been in a slump across the Giants’ recent home stand, I like his odds against Junk, who works with a heavy fastball and sinker combination that has generated a 53.7% hard-hit rate and a .331 xwOBA against, confirming that he can live up to the name with loud contact. Flores complements that with 40 hits and seven HR in 177 PA against fastballs this season. Now batting cleanup with runners likely on base, he's poised to capitalize on Junk’s pitchability.

Marlins vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Birdsong already shut down this Marlins lineup earlier this month. He tossed 5.1 innings of one-run ball on June 1 in Miami, and now faces them in Oracle Park, where he owns a 2.77 ERA and has held opponents to a .236 batting average across 10 career starts. He had a shaky go against Boston last week, but the 22-year-old righty still ranks in the top third of MLB pitchers in chase rate and whiff rate, according to Statcast, and has allowed just two home runs over his last seven appearances. 

This is a Miami offense that ranks 25th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and is just 16-21 on the road this season. On the other side, Junk is a reliever making a spot start in what will likely be a bullpen-heavy game. Junk has been serviceable in limited action, but his contact profile is shaky—his expected batting average allowed (.305) and barrel rate (7.3%) suggest regression is likely. 

The Giants hit better at home and should be eager to salvage the finale after two close losses. With better starting pitching and the more consistent offense, San Francisco is the right side to back on getaway day.

Pick: Giants -1.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

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