Marlins vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 28

Sean Treppedi | May 28, 2025

Sandy Alcantara draws a Padres team with tough plate discipline on Wednesday, which leads us to his strikeouts prop. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

After letting up six runs in the first inning, the San Diego Padres sealed an 8-6 comeback victory against the Miami Marlins and now seeks to complete a three-game sweep on Wednesday May 28, 2025.

San Diego will send left-hander Kyle Hart (2-2, 6.00 ERA) to the mound for his first start since April 23. Hart began the season as the Padres' No. 5 starter but was optioned to Triple-A El Paso after five starts. He returns to the rotation hoping to solidify his spot and help the Padres maintain their 18-8 home record.

Right-hander Sandy Alcantara (2-7, 8.04 ERA) will pitch for Miami. The former Cy Young Award winner continues to look for consistency, having allowed six runs (five earned) over 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Los Angeles Angels. Alcantara has completed six innings only once in ten starts this year.

Let’s look at how these two pitchers stack up in Wednesday’s matchup and share our betting prediction and player prop. 

Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Marlins +1.5 (-150)
• Padres -1.5  (+125)

Moneyline

• Marlins (+138)
• Padres (-164)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-105)
• Under 8.5 (-115)

Marlins vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (2-7, 8.04 ERA)
• Padres: Kyle Hart (2-2, 6.00 ERA)

Marlins vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, May 28, 2025
• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): Padres.TV, FDSN Florida
• Marlins Record: 21-32
• Padres Record: 31-22

Marlins vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Sandy Alcantara Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-158 at FanDuel)

Alcantara simply isn’t the pitcher he was several years ago. No, he wasn’t the strongest strikeout pitcher when he won the Cy Young in 2022, though his command was worlds better than what it is now. Alcantara is walking 4.79 hitters per nine innings. 

His pitches are getting hit for hard contact as he’s allowed a home run in six of his last seven starts. Plus, he’s let up a max exit velocity in the bottom 1% of pitchers this season per Statcast. 

Alcantara has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in three of his 10 starts this season; I don’t expect a Padres lineup that has struck out the single fewest times in the majors to struggle with him on Wednesday. San Diego only struck out four total times in Tuesday’s win.

Marlins vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Per Statcast, Petco Park ranks No. 20 in run generation over the last three seasons. With a late afternoon start, San Diego’s signature marine layer should be hanging heavier in the air, causing some balls to die in the outfield. I’m not high enough on either team’s offensive profile over the week either: both clubs are below-average ranked offenses in that window per FanGraphs. 

While I’m not sold on Alcantara’s ability to record outs via strikeouts, he is an efficient ground ball pitcher. On the other hand, Hart gets a chance to build his confidence against a last-place Marlins lineup that rarely capitalizes on mistakes. 

Pick:  Under 8.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

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