Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, June 10

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Miami Marlins-Pittsburgh Pirates matchup on June 10.

Can Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller earn a win on Tuesday? / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Don’t look now, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have won four games in a row, including their series opener with the Miami Marlins, heading into Tuesday’s matchup at PNC Park.

Mitch Keller is on the mound for the Pirates as they aim to extend their winning streak, but he has not fared well in 2025. Keller has a win/loss record of just 1-8, and the Pirates are 3-10 in his 13 outings.

However, he’ll take on another struggling starter in Marlins’ righty Sandy Alcantara. So far this season, Alcantara has a 7.89 ERA, and the Marlins are just 4-8 in his 12 starts.

Miami has dropped eight of its last 10 games overall, and it's set as an underdog again on Tuesday night.

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this National League showdown. 

Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Marlins +1.5 (-187)
• Pirates -1.5 (+152)

Moneyline

• Marlins: +118
• Pirates: -143

Total

• 8 (Over -119/Under -102)

Marlins vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Miami: Sandy Alcantara (2-7, 7.89 ERA)
• Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (1-8, 4.13 ERA)

Marlins vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 10
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet PT, FDSFL
• Marlins record: 24-40
• Pirates record: 27-40

Marlins vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

• Sandy Alcantara OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-150)

So far this season, Alcantara has walked 30 batters in 57.0 innings of work, allowing multiple free passes in nine of his 12 games in 2025.

He ranks in just the 14th percentile in walk percentage this season, and this is a tough matchup against a Pittsburgh team that has drawn the 11th-most walks in MLB this season. 

If Alcantara isn’t pulled early, he should eventually clear this line on Tuesday night. 

Marlins vs. PiratesPrediction and Pick

Are Keller’s struggles this season more an indictment on the Pittsburgh offense than anything else?

Even though the righty has a 4.13 ERA, he has an expected ERA of 3.93 and a Fielding Independent Pitching of 3.27, a sign that he could be due for some positive regression.

Now, Keller has a couple of blowup outings – he allowed seven runs back on April 4 and six runs in his last start – but he also has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 13 starts.

The Pirates’ offense has just been so bad (29th in runs scored, 27th in OPS, and 25th in batting average) that Keller has taken a bunch of losses despite pitching fairly well.

I think that changes on Tuesday night, as Alcantara has been a mess for Miami, allowing four or more runs in eight of his 12 outings. He ranks in the 23rd percentile or lower in expected ERA, expected batting average against, whiff percentage, walk percentage, strikeout percentage, and average exit velocity against.

Simply put, the Cy Young version of Alcantara has been nowhere to be found in 2025.

With the Pirates rolling at the moment on this four-game winning streak, I think they’ll be able to get Keller enough run support to earn a win on Tuesday. 

Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-143 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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