Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 11

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Miami Marlins-Pittsburgh Pirates matchup on June 11.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Bailey Falter is a great prop target on Wednesday. / David Frerker-Imagn Images

The Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up a quick two-game set on Wednesday, June 11 after Miami took Tuesday’s matchup by a score of 3-2.

Despite that road win, the Marlins find themselves as underdogs on Wednesday afternoon, as righty Cal Quantrill (5.63 ERA) gets the ball for the Fish against Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter (3.49 ERA).

Even though Quantrill has a suspect ERA, he’s been better since the start of May, leading the Marlins to a 6-6 record overall in his outings. Can Miami, which looks to be way out of playoff contention this season, pull off a two-game sweep?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Wednesday’s matinee matchup. 

Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Marlins +1.5 (-163)
• Pirates -1.5 (+133)

Moneyline

• Marlins: +133
• Pirates: -163

Total

• 8.5 (Over -119/Under -103)

Marlins vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Miami: Cal Quantrill (3-6, 5.63 ERA)
• Pittsburgh: Bailey Falter (4-3, 3.49 ERA)

Marlins vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 11
• Time: 12:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet PT, FDSFL
• Marlins record: 25-40
• Pirates record: 27-41

Marlins vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Bailey Falter UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (+115)

Despite a rather pedestrian ERA, Falter actually ranks in the 64th percentile in barrel percentage this season and has an expected batting average against of just .248. The Pirates lefty has limited hits all season long, and his 1.12 WHIP backs up that claim.

In fact, since May 1, Falter has given up four or fewer hits in six of his seven starts, and he’s hit the UNDER on this line in eight of 13 outings overall. Against a Miami team that is in the middle of the pack (15th) in batting average against lefties, Falter could be worth a look in this market on Wednesday. 

Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Call me crazy, but I think the UNDER is the play in this matchup with how well these starters have fared recently.

Quantrill struggled to open the season, but he has a 3.25 ERA and 3.15 Fielding Independent Pitching since the start of May, allowing three or fewer earned runs in each of his six starts.

Falter has also been lights out since May 1, posting a 1.60 ERA while allowing just seven earned runs and 22 hits in 39.1 innings of work.

The Pirates are one of the worst offensive teams in MLB, ranking 26th in batting average, 27th in OPS and 29th in runs scored, so they’ve been an UNDER bettors dream this season. 

Pittsburgh has hit the UNDER in 38 games, going 38-27-3. While Miami has hit the OVER more often than the UNDER, these teams did combine for just five runs with a pretty weak pitching matchup on Tuesday.

Don’t be shocked if these starters keep these offenses in check on Wednesday. 

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-103 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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