Marlins vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, July 10

Sean Treppedi | Jul 10, 2025

Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 22 stolen bases and hasn't had one in a while, but with some catching deficiency on Marlins, he has some value in that market. / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Reds snapped the Miami Marlins 11-game road winning streak on Wednesday. Just a day after earning his first All-Star nod, Andrew Abbott tossed seven scoreless innings, while Elly De La Cruz delivered two RBI doubles to help the Cincinnati Reds hand the Marlins a 7-2 loss.

Miami took the first two games of the four-game set but is pegged as road dogs for the finale.

Nick Lodolo (8-2, 2.96 ERA) will go for the Reds. He’s been sharp lately, allowing three runs over six innings in a solid outing against the Phillies despite taking the loss.

On the other hand, Cal Quantrill (6-7, 3.77 ERA) is dealing with command issues — in his most recent appearance, lasting just 3.2 innings while giving up two runs on six hits against Milwaukee.

Let’s break down the matchup with a prop and prediction to consider.

Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Marlins -1.5 (-142)
• Reds +1.5 (+118)

Moneyline

• Marlins (+146)
• Reds (-168)

Total

• Over 9 (-122)
• Under 9 (+100)

Marlins vs. Reds Probable Pitchers

• Marlins: Cal Quantrill (3-7, 5.40 ERA)
• Reds: Nick Lodolo (5-6, 3.58 ERA)

Marlins vs. Reds How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 10, 2025
• Time: 5:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSN Ohio, FDSN Florida
• Marlins Record: 42-49
• Reds Record: 47-46

Marlins vs. Reds Best MLB Prop Bet

• Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+178 at FanDuel)

It’s been a while for the Reds stolen base leader, but De La Cruz’s sustained sprint speed in the top 91 percentile gives him upside against Agustin Ramirez’s -4 caught stealing rating. That puts the Marlins catcher in the bottom three percent of catchers in the game along with his -11 block rating. 

Marlins vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

I see a vast pitching advantage here. Lodolo has allowed just five earned runs over his last 15.2 innings while holding opponents to a .211 batting average during that span.

Per Statcast, his curveball is stumping hitters: it has generated a 38.3% whiff rate while limiting hitters to a .161 xBA. Miami, meanwhile, ranks No. 28 in MLB with a .220 batting average and .624 OPS against left-handed pitching since June 15.

Quantrill has not been so sharp on the road, allowing a .284 batting average and .788 OPS. There’s little faith to be had in Cincinnati’s splits, but I’m taking the home team as the Marlins take their trip back down to earth.

Pick: Reds -1.5 (+118 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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