Matt Olson Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction

Sean Treppedi | Jul 14, 2025

Matt Olson heads into the 2025 All-Star Game with the Truist Park crowd behind him as the hosting team's representative. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The hosting city’s own Matt Olson returns to the Home Run Derby stage with the intangible edge of crowd energy. 

Through July  6, his 17 homers, .262/.362/.468 slash line, and Statcast metrics — 93.8 mph average exit velocity and 113.8 mph peak — place him among the top 10 percent of major league hitters. 

His barrel rate is somewhat tempered in contrast to the other players hitting on Monday, and his age may weigh against him. At 31, Olson is firmly in the veteran territory, and like the point I made on Byron Buxton’s chances, Derby history shows few winners over 29. Though he escaped first-round elimination in 2021 by just one homer, he ultimately bowed out early. 

It matters how much you want to value his consistency, discipline, and home support over those caveats. As far as I value them, I like Olson at +106 to advance past the first round, but am not feeling confident in his odds past there. 

Here’s where he stands across the board.

Matt Olson’s 2025 Home Run Derby Odds 

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Home Run Derby Champion: +950
• To Make the Finals: +350
• To Make Semifinals: +106

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