Mattia Bellucci vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for US Open Second Round

Iain MacMillan | Aug 27, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz is a massive favorite against Mattia Belluci in the second round of the U.S. Open. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

It's never been clearer that the world of men's tennis belongs to Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Sinner has won this year's Australian Open and Wimbledon, while Alcaraz was the winner at the French Open.

It seems destined that these two will meet in a Grand Slam final for the third time this year. Before that happens, Alcaraz will need to avoid any potential upset in the early round to ensure he goes on another deep tournament run.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for Wednesday's Round 2 match.

Mattia Bellucci vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Mattia Bellucci +2000
• Carlos Alcaraz -7000

Total Games

• 29.5 (Over -126/Under -108)

Mattia Bellucci vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, August 27
• Time: 7:00 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN+

Mattia Bellucci: How They've Fared at U.S. Open

This is the second straight year that Bellucci has made it to the second round of the U.S. Open. The 24-year-old is still early in his career and already has three Grand Slam match wins, but expecting to be competitive in this match is asking too much of the young Italian.

Carlos Alcaraz: How They've Fared at U.S. Open

Carlos Alcaraz got his first Grand Slam win at the 2022 U.S. Open, but he hasn't returned to the final since. He was eliminated in the semifinals in 2023 and then suffered a shocking Round 2 upset last year. Overall, he has an 85% win rate at the U.S. Open throughout his career.

Mattia Bellucci vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and What the Odds Say

At -7000, Carlos Alcaraz is the biggest favorite in the second round at the U.S. Open. If you translate the odds to implied probability, he has a 98.59% chance of winning this match and advancing to Round 3.

Nobody in their right mind, unless they have some inside information that's not known to the public, like an Alcaraz illness or injury, would be betting on Bellucci to pull off the upset in this one. With that being said, none of us wants to lay the -7000 price tag. You would have to wager $7,000 on Alcaraz to win a profit of $100.

Instead, we can bet on Alcaraz to cover the 8.5-game spread. He's coming off a win at the ATP Masters 10000 Cincinnati, losing only two sets the entire tournament. Belluci is in over his head in this one as a 24-year-old.

Pick: Alcaraz -8.5 games (-108) via FanDuel

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