Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Thursday, Feb. 13

Reed Wallach | Feb 12, 2025

Memphis' PJ Haggerty (4), Colby Rogers (3) Dante Harris (5) smile and stand together as a teammate shoots a free throw during the game between Temple University and the University of Memphis at FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn., on Sunday, February 9, 2025. / Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Memphis is the class of the AAC this season but must avoid slip-ups in pursuit of a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

One of those potential slip-ups is on the docket for Thursday night with the team on the road to face South Florida. Despite a down season for the Bulls, the team is getting some respect in the betting market as a single-digit underdog against the Tigers. 

Can South Florida put a scare into Memphis? Let’s break it down below. 

Memphis vs. South Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Memphis: -7.5 (-102)
• South Florida: +7.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Memphis: -285
• South Florida: +235

Total: 151.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Memphis vs. South Florida How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, February 13th
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: Yuengling Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Memphis Record: 20-4
• South Florida Record: 12-12

Memphis vs. South Florida Key Players to Watch

Memphis

PJ Haggerty: Well on his way to being the AAC player of the year, the Tulsa transfer has been on a tear in league play, scoring 18 or more in all but one league game this season. The Memphis defense is always elite, but it's Haggerty’s offense that has pushed the team to another level this season, averaging nearly 22 points per game with five rebounds and nearly four assists. 

South Florida

Jayden Reid: The sophomore guard has struggled relative to last season’s campaign for the Bulls. Last season he was a spot starter while posting elite efficiency, but the jump in usage has harmed his underlying metrics. Reid has seen his minutes go up about five per game and his scoring go up nearly six points but is shooting five percent worse from the field. He is averaging 12 points on 38% shooting. 

Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction and Pick

These are two fast-paced offenses that are first and second in AAC average possession length, per KenPom, which is baked into the total that is north of 150. 

However, I’m still interested in the over in this one. The Memphis defense is incredibly reliant on generating turnovers, ranking first in AAC play in turnover rate, but the USF backcourt is sure-handed and is third in the league in turnover rate. 

USF is a strong offense on the interior and with proper ball handling can get into the teeth of the aggressive Tigers defense and score with relative ease, ranking fourth in AAC two-point field goal percentage. 

However, Memphis should have little issue cleaning the glass and torching the USF defense which is a below-average defense. The group, like Memphis, is reliant on turnovers, but susceptible to foul trouble and easy driving lanes by way of over-playing on defense. 

Both teams have isolation scorers that should thrive in this open court environment, sending this game over the total. 

PICK: OVER 151.5 (-115, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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