Mets vs. Braves Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, June 17

Sean Treppedi | Jun 17, 2025

Pete Alonso shows encouraging splits to bounce back after a frustrating weekend on Tuesday in Atlanta. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The New York Mets retained their lead in the division despite being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend. They head to Truist park to play the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday, who just got their turn to unload runs on the lowly Colorado Rockies. 

With David Peterson (5-2, 2.49 ERA) on the mound facing Spencer Schwellenbach (5-4, 3.11 ERA), New York is priced as underdogs in its first meeting with Atlanta even though it is 13 games ahead in the standings. 

Schwellenbach is hot off a complete game where he relinquished two earned runs against the Brewers. The second-year pitcher is molding into a reliable option in the Atlanta rotation with at least six innings of work logged in five of his last seven starts. 

Peterson also just threw a complete game in his last start against the Nationals and allowed 0 earned runs. In his sixth year with the Mets, he is pacing himself to a career season.

Let’s dive into how these two stack up in their first meeting of the season on Tuesday. 

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-184)
• Braves -1.5 (+152)

Moneyline

• Mets (+114)
• Braves (-134)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-105)
• Under 8.5 (-115)

Mets vs. Braves Probable Pitchers

• Mets: David Peterson (5-2, 2.49 ERA)
• Braves: Spencer Schwellenbach (5-4, 3.11 ERA)

Mets vs. Braves How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 17, 2025
• Time: 7:16 p.m. ET
• Venue: Truist Park
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, FDSN South
• Mets Record: 45-27
• Braves Record: 31-39

Mets vs. Braves Best MLB Prop Bet

• Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 at FanDuel)

Alonso collected only three total bases in the disappointing efforts against the Rays last weekend. I’m looking for a bounceback performance from one of the game’s hottest contact hitters, who remains in the 99 percentile in all batted ball numbers on Statcast.

Alonso is 2-for-9 against Schwellenbach in his career. He’s hit .321 against fastballs, which is Schwellenbach’s most frequent offering. Alonso has been even better on the road, batting .311 with 10 doubles and 11 home runs. We’ll use these trends to back him for plus-money on Tuesday. 

Mets vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

With a day’s worth of rest for both teams, I expect the Mets to regroup with Peterson on the mound. A big issue over the weekend was control disasters that led to walks while the Rays took advantage by beating them with small ball and timely hits, which are not areas of efficiency for Atlanta. Peterson’s command has been superb this year, walking 2.82 per nine innings.

Runners getting left in scoring position were also an issue where the Mets batted .148 and Alonso struck out twice. Schwellenbach has outstanding command as his Stuff+ is improved from last season; he’s killing hitters with his curveball. But the Mets can jump on his substandard hard-hit and strikeout rates with a top-five ranked offense that is generating a .421 SLG.

Pick: Mets (+114 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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