Mets vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 8

Sean Treppedi | Jul 8, 2025

Clay Holmes looks to keep the Mets' winning rhythm alive with a strikeout prop of 4.5 against the Orioles on Tuesday. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The New York Mets enter their road series against Baltimore with momentum after defeating the Yankees. After a frustrating June, their offense looked more functional over the weekend as they jockey with Philadelphia for first place in their division. 

Clay Holmes (8-4, 2.99 ERA) continues to defy regression models with savvy pitch sequencing and ground-ball efficiency, offering the Mets a stable presence in their rotation.

The Orioles have face-planted in 2025. They are caught between staying competitive and evaluating their younger arms, with signs pointing toward looming roster shifts as the deadline nears. 

Brandon Young (0-3, 7.02 ERA) has yet to prove he belongs at this level, and his persistent command issues make every outing feel like damage control from the first pitch.

Let’s look at this recipe for a couple of picks on Tuesday.

Mets vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (+125)
• Orioles +1.5 (-150)

Moneyline

• Mets (-130)
• Orioles (+110)

Total

• Over 9.5 (-124)
• Under 9.5 (+102)

Mets vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• Mets: Clay Holmes (8-4, 2.99 ERA)
• Orioles: Brandon Young (0-3, 7.02 ERA)

Mets vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 8, 2025
• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Venue: Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): MASN, SNY
• Mets Record: 52-39
• Orioles Record: 40-49

Mets vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

• Clay Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132 at FanDuel)

We know that Holmes is no strikeout generator. He’s earned his outs through soft contact and ground balls, but I like his matchup against this frustrated O’s lineup on Tuesday given that he’s averaged 4.5 strikeouts through his 17 starts this season.

Baltimore ranks in the bottom third of MLB in both contact rate and strikeout rate as is. Holmes has carved out at least five innings in nearly every start he’s had, so he should see enough bats to execute his sinker-slider mix and generate whiffs. 

Mets vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

The Mets are catching the Orioles at a vulnerable time, and this matchup heavily tilts in New York’s favor. Holmes may not light up the radar gun, but he’s a master of soft contact and has been keeping even good lineups quiet. The Orioles' approach at the plate has been overly reliant on power, but Holmes’ heavy sinker limits long balls and frustrates aggressive swings. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t helped its young pitchers much either, and Young’s lack of command only adds more pressure.

Even when Holmes doesn’t go deep, the Mets’ bullpen — especially after a rest day — is more than capable of covering innings. I'm just not confident enough in Young, who hasn’t shown he can handle MLB hitters yet.

The Mets and their power hitting have quietly become one of the better road teams over the last month, and after topping the Yankees, this should be child's play. Baltimore only continues to be outmatched against teams with strong starting pitching. The Mets don’t need to be perfect to win this one — they just need to stay steady, which is something Baltimore hasn’t done all season.

Pick:  Mets (-130 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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