Mets vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 9

Sean Treppedi | Jul 9, 2025

Juan Soto is becoming a safer play in the total bases market after exploding over the last month. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The Mets pulled off a dramatic comeback Tuesday night in Baltimore, punctuated by Juan Soto’s go-ahead single in the 10th inning that stamped a 7-6 win.

Despite entering the eighth down by four runs, the Mets clawed their way back to achieve their fifth win in 39 games when trailing after seven.

New York continues to apply pressure on division-leading Philadelphia in the NL East race, now tied for first place heading into Wednesday’s follow-up.

The Mets turn to David Peterson (6-4, 3.18 ERA), who hasn’t been as effective on the road with a 1-4 record and a 4.44 ERA across eight starts.

Tomoyuki Sugano (6-5, 4.44 ERA) goes for the O’s as he has shown flashes of reliability in his first MLB season, though he’s struggled with home run prevention, allowing 19 long balls in just over 93 innings.

Here’s our angle on the matchup.

Mets vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (+105)
• Orioles +1.5 (-126)

Moneyline

• Mets (-146)
• Orioles (+126)

Total

• Over 9.5 (-104)
• Under 9.5 (-118)

Mets vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• Mets: David Peterson (6-4, 3.18 ERA)
• Orioles: Tomoyuki Sugano (6-5, 4.44 ERA)

Mets vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 9, 2025
• Time: Camden Yards
• Venue: 7:05 p.m. ET
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Mets Record: 53-39
• Orioles Record: 40-50

Mets vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

• Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130 at FanDuel)

I’m cool enough with -130 given that Soto is slashing a robust .269/.399/.509 with 21 homers and 52 RBI through 91 games this season. He takes primary responsibility in the Mets’ recent wake-up call: he tallied 10 home runs, 20 RBI, and 20 walks in June alone, earning NL Player of the Month honors. In these early days of July, Soto has further heated up, hitting an eye-popping .385 average to start the month. Also, Sugano has been hit hard by left-handed bats; he’s allowed 19 homers in just 17 outings, with 12 coming to lefties.

Mets vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

I expect another active scoreboard on Wednesday since both of these offenses are trending upward: New York has launched 14 homers and logged a .425 slugging percentage over its past ten games, averaging 8.3 hits per contest, while Baltimore has hit 16 home runs, slashed .263/.308/.476, and averaged 9.5 hits per game during the same stretch. 

Sugano’s recent form is worrisome — he’s surrendered 22 earned runs across his last five starts, allowing 18 runs in just 9.2 innings over his previous two outings, making him highly vulnerable to the Mets’ potent lineup. Peterson really isn’t all that stingy either, conceding 1, 5, and 5 earned runs in his last three starts, which encourages Orioles hitters to take advantage.

Both bullpens have been all over the place, too — Baltimore’s staff has an ERA well over 5.00 in the last 10 games, and New York’s has allowed 21 home runs in their last 10 games. Last night’s extra-inning win saw three Mets homers and O’s rallies, so I’m seeking more fireworks at Camden Yards.

Pick: Over 9.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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