Mets vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 28

Sean Treppedi | Jul 28, 2025

Dylan Cease's home dominance presents a challenge to the blazing Mets at a low-scoring ballpark. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The New York Mets roll into San Diego riding a seven-game winning streak, finally living up to their roster on paper with timely hitting and a red-hot bullpen. 

The Padres, still clinging to a Wild Card spot, have steadied themselves by splitting with the Cardinals and leaning on elite bullpen production to stay in the playoff mix. 

Frankie Montas (3-1, 4.62 ERA) gets the ball for New York after an uneven five-hit, five-strikeout outing against the Angels. 

He’ll face Dylan Cease (3-10, 4.59 ERA), who’s been far sharper at Petco Park and enters with an ERA under 3.50 at home this season.

Here’s my analysis on a player prop and prediction for the opener in San Diego.

Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (-192)
• Padres +1.5 (+158)

Moneyline

• Mets (+110)
• Padres (-130)

Total

• Over 8 (-106)
• Under 8 (-114)

Mets vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Mets: Frankie Montas (3-1, 4.62 ERA)
• Padres: Dylan Cease (3-10, 4.59 ERA)

Mets vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 28, 2025
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, Padres TV Network
• Mets Record: 62-44
• Padres Record: 57-49

Mets vs. Padres Prop Bet

• Xander Bogaerts Home Run (+750 at FanDuel)

Bogaerts isn’t the hitter he used to be, but he has gone deep in two of his last eight games, and he’ll face Montas Monday, who owns a .289 expected batting average against and has struggled to keep the ball in the yard this year with a 4.82 xERA.

Montas has also allowed a home run in back-to-back starts and has been far shakier on the road, with a 7.00 ERA in two away outings this season. Bogaerts, meanwhile, shows improved launch angle and barrel rate on FanGraphs. 

Mets vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

The Mets are cruising, but I like San Diego to break the streak at home given pitching edges and the more defensively prone Petco Park. Cease has been a different pitcher at Petco, posting a 3.48 ERA across nine home starts. Meanwhile, Montas continues to allow too much hard contact, entering with a 4.82 xERA that underscores his volatility and potential regression.

The Padres have the edge in bullpen form too — their relievers own a league-best 1.96 ERA over the past 30 days, while the Mets’ bullpen has regressed to a 4.53 mark in the same stretch per FanGraphs. 

Pick: Padres (-108 at FanDuel)

---

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.