Mets vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 21

The Red Sox are aiming to sweep the Mets on Wednesday.

The Red Sox are favored with Garrett Crochet on the mound. / Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

The New York Mets have struggled in their matchups with AL East teams as of late, losing two of three to the New York Yankees and their first two meetings this week with the Boston Red Sox.

On Wednesday, Boston will aim to pull off the sweep, and it has ace Garrett Crochet on the mound to get it done. Crochet will take on Mets righty Tylor Megill, who has led New York to just three wins in nine outings in 2025.

New York has fallen behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings with a three-game losing streak, and it’s struggled on the road this season, going three games under .500. Can it salvage this series finale against Crochet and the Sox?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Wednesday’s matchup. 

Mets vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-170)
• Red Sox -1.5 (+142)

Moneyline

• Mets: +124
• Red Sox: -148

Total

• 8 (Over -105/Under -115)

Mets vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

• New York: Tylor Megill (3-4, 3.74 ERA)
• Boston: Garrett Crochet (4-3, 2.00 ERA)

Mets vs. Red Sox How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, May 21
• Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
• Venue: Fenway Park
• How to Watch (TV): NESN, SNY, MLB Network
• Mets record: 29-20
• Red Sox record: 25-25

Mets vs. Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Tylor Megill OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed (+115)

Mets starter Tylor Megill has struggled when it comes to allowing free passes this season, and it’s a big reason why he has a WHIP of 1.38.

According to Statcast, Megill is in just the 16th percentile in walk percentage in 2025, and he’s allowed three or more free passes in five of his nine outings. 

So, to get him at +115 to clear this prop is pretty solid value. Boston is 12th in MLB in walks draw in the 2025 season. 

Mets vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why Boston can complete the sweep on Wednesday:

So far in the 2025 season, Crochet only has one outing where he’s given up more than two earned runs, leading Boston to a 6-4 record in his 10 starts.

The lefty enters this matchup with the Mets with a 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, as he’s allowed just 46 hits in 63.0 innings of work.

New York has dropped three games in a row and four of its last five, and I’m far from sold on the Mets with Megill on the mound. The righty has led New York to just a 3-6 record in his outings this season, and he’s given up at least four runs in all three of his starts in May.

Megill has failed to get through five innings in back-to-back starts, and he’s seen his expected ERA jump to 3.51 this season after what was a strong start to the campaign. 

While New York is nine games over .500 this season, a lot of that work has been done at home, where it is 17-5. On the road, the Mets are just 12-15. 

I’ll back Boston to complete the series sweep with its ace on the bump. 

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)

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