Michigan State vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 15

Reed Wallach | Feb 14, 2025

Feb 11, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kasparas Jakucionis (32) drives the ball against UCLA Bruins guard Skyy Clark (55) during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Michigan State travels to Champaign to face Illinois on the heels of a shocking loss at home to Indiana during the week. 

After a torrid second-half rally against Oregon, the Spartans lost its third of four games in Big Ten play. Now, the team will face an Illinois team it narrowly escaped from at home about a month ago. 

The Fighting Illini have had an up-and-down Big Ten schedule, but the team is hopeful that now fully healthy it can make a late-season push, starting with a home win against Michigan State. As small favorites, can Illinois exact some revenge? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

Michigan State vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Michigan State: +5.5 (-110)
• Illinois: -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Michigan State: +188
• Illinois: -230

Total: 155.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Michigan State vs. Illinois How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, February 15
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: State Farm Center
• How to Watch (TV): FOX 
• Michigan State Record: 19-5
• Illinois Record: 17-8

Michigan State vs. Illinois  Key Players to Watch

Michigan State

Jase Richardson: Richardson has continued to see more and more run as the season continues, and he is taking full advantage. He scored 29 points in the come-from-behind win against Oregon while adding 13 points in the loss to Indiana. The freshman has earned more minutes as the season continues and Michigan State gears up for an NCAA Tournament run. 

Illinois 

Kaspras Jakucionis: The freshman continues to produce at a high level for the Fighting Illini, fresh off back-to-back 24-point efforts in which he dished out four assists in each. Jakucionis was limited to only eight minutes against Michigan State, fouling out in the process, and he will look to stay on the floor and lead Illinois to a win. 

Michigan State vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

I’m going to back Illinois at home after the way the first game played out in addition to further matchup edges for the team. 

In the first game, Illinois nearly beat Michigan State on the road despite its offensive engine Jakucionis hardly playing in the game. Now, with him on the floor, expect him to find plenty of answers against Michigan State’s defense that can be had at the rim this season. 

Illinois defense is incredibly versatile but does an elite job of shutting off the perimeter for opponents, funneling teams inside to the likes of Tomislav Ivisic. While Michigan State’s offense is more than willing to take mid-range jumpers and try to get to the rim, Illinois has the fifth-best two-point defense in the country while also ranking ninth in defensive rebounding rate. 

Both teams are reliant on winning the shot volume battle to offset what has been a dire season from the perimeter. Michigan State is shooting 28% from deep as a team -- 353rd nationally -- while Illinois isn’t much better at 31% -- good for 288th. 

However, Illinois' offense is far more complete, an elite team at finishing inside on a healthy diet of shots.

Ultimately, at home, and with hopefully a better whistle, I like Illinois to get some shots to fall and unpack the spiraling Spartans.

PICK: Illinois -5.5 (-115, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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