Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds and Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Friday, Feb. 21

Reed Wallach | Feb 21, 2025

Michigan State's Jase Richardson steals the ball from Purdue during the second half on Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

First place in the Big Ten is on the line when Michigan State travels to in-state rival Michigan for Friday night hoops action. 

The Wolverines have been one of the best stories in college basketball this season, thriving under first-year head coach Dusty May around a unique offense that is centered on the playmaking of Yale transfer Danny Wolf. Can Michigan out-last the talented Spartans at home as small favorites? 

Here’s our betting preview.

Michigan State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Michigan State: +3.5 (-110)
• Michigan: +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Michigan State: +136
• Michigan: -164

Total: 151.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Michigan State vs. Michigan How to Watch

• Date: Friday, February 21st
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Crisler Center 
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Michigan State Record: 21-5
• Michigan Record: 20-5

Michigan State vs. Michigan Key Players to Watch

Michigan State

Jaden Akins UNDER 11.5 Points (+100)

Akins has been up-and-down in Big Ten play, and I don't trust him to hold up on the road against Michigan. He is averaging 12 points per game in Big Ten play, but that number has trended downward as play has continued.

In February, his scoring average is down to 11 points per game and he has been struggling to to find his shot, hitting onyl 23% of his three-point shots.

We've seen the emergence of freshman Jase Richardson in the backcourt, and this has been a well rounded team all year. This number is counting on Akins playing above expectations, and I'm not sold.

Michigan 

Vladislav Goldin UNDER 22.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)

I'm going to trust the Michigan State defense that is top three in rebounding rate and elite at defending the rim to keep a lid on the Florida Atlantic transfer Goldin.

The Sparty defense is elite on the interior and should be able to keep the ball out of Goldin's hands, who is averaging just short of 16 points with six rebounds, right on this player prop.

Even in a potentially high scoring game, I'm going to count on Michigan looking elsewhere for production in this one.

Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

This is too many points for the Wolverines to lay as the team has been skating by in conference play. 

Eight of the last nine Michigan games have been decided by four points or fewer with the team winning seven of them. The Wolverines have a potent shot-making unit on offense, but the team is incredibly sloppy with the ball and can get outmuscled on the glass. 

The team is 331st in the country in turnover percentage while struggling to stop transition offense off of its misses. Michigan State isn’t a turnover-centric defense, but it’s the third-best rebounding team in the country and is always hunting transition opportunities. 

The Spartans have the size to hang with Wolf on the perimeter as well as fellow big man and roll threat Vladislav Goldin as the team bolsters a top 50 near-proximity field goal percentage allowed.

Michigan has been shaky on the glass this season and it’s only gotten worse in Big Ten play, 10th in league games in defensive rebounding percentage. The Spartans thrive on winning the shot volume battle, leading the conference in offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate while shooting 80% from the charity stripe. 

I can’t trust Michigan to win by more than a few possessions as I expect this one to come down to the wire. I’ll grab the points. 

PICK: Michigan State +3.5 (-110, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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