Michigan State vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, Feb. 4

Reed Wallach | Feb 4, 2025

Feb 1, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) reacts during the second half push against USC Trojans at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: William Navarro-Imagn Images / William Navarro-Imagn Images

Michigan State had its 13-game winning streak snapped against USC on Saturday, and remains out west for Big Ten action against UCLA on Tuesday. 

The Bruins have been playing fine ball after a four game losing streak early in Big Ten play, winning five straight games. Can the team continue its fine run of form against the team at the top of the Big Ten standings in the Spartans? 

How do these two match up? Let’s break it down with the Bruin sitting a small home favorite. 

Michigan State vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Michigan State: +2.5 (-102)
• UCLA: -2.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Michigan State: +128
• UCLA: -154

Total: 139.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Michigan State vs. UCLA How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, February 4
• Game Time: 10:00 PM EST
• Venue: Pauley Pavillion
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Michigan State Record: 18-3
• UCLA Record: 16-6

Michigan State vs. UCLA Key Players to Watch 

Michigan State

Jeremy Fears: The guard continues to play at a high level for the Spartans, leading the Big Ten in assist rate in league play while being a downhill threat for the Michigan State offense, posting a Big Ten high free throw rate. Against an imposing UCLA defense, Fears will be tasked with keeping Sparty on track on the offensive side of the ball. 

UCLA

Eric Dailey: The Bruins have been on a tear as Dailey continues to pace this unit on both sides of the ball. In the team’s blowout win on Thursday against Oregon, winning by 26, Dailey poured in 21 points while making all three of his shots from beyond the arc. An elite defender, Dailey will likely need to be active against the deep Spartans roster as well. 

Michigan State vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

The Spartans had their lengthy winning streak snapped over the weekend, but this matchup sets up nicely for the team to keep this close and possibly win this game outright. 

The Bruins defense is elite, but is over leveraged on generating turnovers. The defense is physical, ranking fifth in turnover percentage, but is vulnerable to getting into foul trouble with a free throw rate allowed in the bottom 100 this season.

The Spartans offense has plenty of ball handlers that can navigate the Bruins’ ball pressure that is below the conference average in defensive rebounding rate as well, which is where Michigan State thrives with the best offensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten. 

Meanwhile, UCLA is vulnerable around the rim where Michigan State does most of its damage on the offensive side of the ball. 

On the other side of the ball, it’s Michigan State which has the more complete defense, ranking top 20 in effective field goal percentage while consistently winning the shot volume battle with a top 20 rebounding rate in the country. 

The defense should limit UCLA’s offense that lacks the self-creation shot making and is over leveraged on jump shooting, which can be an issue against a disciplined Michigan State defense. 

I’ll take the points in a potential bounce back opportunity for the Spartans on the road. 

PICK: Michigan State +2.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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