Michigan State vs. USC Prediction, Odds and Key Players for College Basketball on Wednesday, Feb. 19

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Michigan State-USC matchup in the Big Ten on Wednesday night.

Michigan State is an road underdog on Wednesday night. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two top-25 teams face off in women’s college basketball on Wednesday night, as the No. 4 USC Trojans take on the No. 22 Michigan State Spartans. 

USC is fresh off a massive stretch where it beat No. 8 Ohio State by 19 points, No. 3 UCLA (who was previously undefeated) by 11 points, and unranked Washington on the road to improve to 23-2 on the season and 13-1 in Big Ten play.

The Trojans and JuJu Watkins (the leading scorer in the conference) are now No. 1 in the conference, and they are heavily favored against Michigan State tonight. 

The Spartans (9-5 in Big Ten play) are a veteran team that is 2-2 against top-25 teams in the 2024-25 season. Can they pull off an upset and boost their spot ahead of the Big Ten Tournament?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this matchup. 

Michigan State vs. USC Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Michigan State +11.5 (-110)
• USC -11.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Michigan State: +525
• USC: -750

Total

• 146.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Michigan State vs. USC How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Feb. 19
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Galen Center
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Michigan State record: 19-6
• USC record: 23-2

Michigan State vs. USC Key Players to Watch

Michigan State Key Players to Watch

• Julia Ayrault, Guard – 15.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.5 BPG

Senior guard Julia Ayrault does a little bit of everything for this Michigan State team, leading it in scoring, rebounding, and blocks per game.

Aryrault turned in a big performance in Michigan State’s recent loss to UCLA, putting up 18 points, five rebounds and two assists. Can she lead her team to an upset win tonight?  

USC State Key Players to Watch

• Kiki Iriafen, Forward – 17.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.8 APG

Watkins garners a ton of coverage for her elite scoring ability, but Iriafen has a real chance to be a top-three pick in the upcoming WNBA draft. The senior forward is second on the team in scoring, second in rebounding, and is shooting an impressive 50.4 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from 3. 

Outside of Watkins, only two players average double figures for the Trojans, and Iriafen (17.8 PPG) is clearly the No. 2 option. They’ll need her to turn in another strong performance to beat a top-25 opponent for the seventh time this season. 

Michigan State vs. USC Prediction and Pick

The Spartans hung tough with UCLA over the weekend, and they’ve gone .500 against teams in the top-25 despite an average record in Big Ten play. 

While the Trojans are dominant at home this season (12-1), they also won by just five points against an unranked Washington team in their last game. USC goes as Watkins goes – unless Iriafen has a huge scoring game.

That makes it a little hard to cover these massive spreads if she has a down game. Michigan State also can score with USC, as it averages 81.0 points per game – 11th in the country – and is in the top 65 in 3-point percentage and field goal percentage. 

The Trojans are not the most efficient shooting team, ranking outside the top 100 in 3-point percentage this season. 

Over the last month, USC has played single-digit games with Iowa, Indiana, and Washington (all unranked teams in the Big Ten). I am not sold on it covering a double-digit spread against a top-25 team tonight. 

Pick: Michigan State +11.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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