Mississippi State vs. Missouri Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 12

Iain MacMillan | Nov 14, 2025

Missouri is a home favorite against Mississippi State in Week 12 college football action. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The Missouri Tigers have suffered back-to-back tough losses to Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. A College Football Playoff berth is now out of the question for the Tigers, but now they take on Mississippi State, and both teams still have an opportunity to boost their bowl game resume.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for Saturday's SEC showdown.

Mississippi State vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Mississippi State +7.5 (-122)
• Missouri -7.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• Mississippi State +230
• Missouri -285

Total

• OVER 51.5 (-110)
• UNDER 51.5 (-110)

Mississippi State vs. Missouri How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 15
• Game Time: 7:45 pm ET
• Venue: Memorial Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• Mississippi State Record: 5-5 (1-5 in SEC)
• Missouri Record: 6-3 (2-3 in SEC)

Mississippi State vs. Missouri Betting Trends

• Mississippi State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
• Mississippi State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games
• Mississippi State is 1-17 straight up in its last 18 games vs. SEC opponents
• Missouri is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games
• Missouri is 15-2 straight up in its last 17 home games

Mississippi State vs. Missouri Key Player to Watch

• Ahmad Hardy, RB - Missouri Tigers

Missouri's offense is at its best when the Tigers get their run game going. Ahmad Hardy has been fantastic this season, racking up 1,046 yards for an average of 6.1 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns. He's set up to have a huge performance against Mississippi State.

Mississippi State vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

Teams struggle to throw the ball against this Mississippi State team, but they've been able to run the ball with some success. The Bulldogs rank 115th in opponent EPA per rush, and they've allowed 4.9 yards per carry, which ranks 109th in the country.

That's fantastic news for a fun-first Missouri team. Ahmad Hardy averages 6.1 yards per rush, and as a whole, the Tigers rank 13th in the country in EPA per rush. They're going to be able to lean on their run game and cruise to a win and cover against Mississippi State.

Pick: Missouri -7.5 (+100) via FanDuel

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!