Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Aaron Judge, Blue Jays vs. Mets, A’s vs. Rockies)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Friday, April 4, including a pick for Aaron Judge.

New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge is a great prop target on Friday. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Friday’s MLB action features a massive 14-game slate – a nice return to action after just five games on Thursday – and there are a ton of afternoon matchups to dive into as well:

• Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
• St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox
• San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
• Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets
• A’s vs. Colorado Rockies
• New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
• Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants

On top of these matchups, we have a clash between two of the best teams in the NL – the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies – that should be extremely entertaining.

As we do every day here at SI Betting, I’m here to share my favorite bets for the MLB action today. There are a few player props that I’m eyeing tonight, including one for Aaron Judge, as well a first five innings play for an underdog with one of its best pitchers on the mound. 

Here’s the full breakdown of each of my best bets for April 4. 

MLB Best Bets for Friday, April 4

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings ML (+105) vs, New York Mets
• A’s-Colorado Rockies No Run First Inning (-120)
• Brandon Pfaadt OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
• Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-155)

Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings ML (+105) vs, New York Mets

One of the more interesting afternoon matchups on Friday features the 3-3 New York Mets and the 5-2 Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto is sending Kevin Gausman to the mound for the second time this season, and the veteran right-hander has consistently been one of the best pitchers in MLB over the last few seasons, posting a sub-4.00 ERA in five consecutive campaigns while finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting three times.

He takes on Mets righty Tylor Megill, who had a solid 2025 debut, but has not been nearly as effective in his career, posting a 4.52 career ERA and a 4.35 career FIP. 

While I think the Jays have the pitching advantage, I also want to highlight their offense, which ranks fourth in MLB in batting average (New York is 27th) and ninth in runs scored (New York is 18th). 

I’m going to stay away from either bullpen and simply bet on the Jays early on when I expect Gausman to still be in the game.  

A’s-Colorado Rockies No Run First Inning (-120)

The Colorado Rockies and A’s are two of the best No Run First Inning (NRFI) teams in Major League Baseball to start the season. 

The Rockies are 5-1 to the NRFI while the A’s are 5-2, although Colorado’s starter Ryan Feltner is the only pitcher that saw the YRFI hit in his start this season.

Despite that, I’m taking the NRFI on Friday, as both of these offenses rank in the bottom half of the league in batting average and OPS (Colorado is just 27th in OPS). On top of that, the Rockies are dead last in MLB in runs scored in 2025. 

Both of these starters also had solid season debuts, allowing just two runs apiece over five innings of work. 

Brandon Pfaadt OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Arizona Diamondbacks youngster Brandon Pfaadt has a great matchup on Friday night against a Washington National team that ranks 29th in Major League Baseball in strikeouts per game (11.17).

Pfaadt punched out five batters in his season debut, and he had a strong season from a K’s standpoint in 2024, striking out a career-high 9.2 batters per nine innings.

He should be able to work fairly deep into this game against Washington, and it’s worth noting that he cleared 5.5 K’s in over half of his starts last season (17 of 32) for Arizona. 

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-155)

Aaron Judge hit his fifth home run of the season on Thursday night, and the New York Yankees slugger is the early favorite to win AL MVP once again.

On Friday, Judge begins a new series against the Pittsburgh Pirates and starter Mitch Keller, who has been prone to free passes in his career. Keller has walked at least 50 batters in each of the last three seasons, averaging 3.2 walks per nine innings for his career.

While he only walked one batter in his season debut, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Keller issue a free pass to Judge – by far the most dangerous hitter in the Yankee lineup. Judge led MLB in walks last season, so I love him at this price on Friday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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