Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Mets-Yankees, Mariners-Padres and Astros-Rangers)

Breaking down the best bets for the MLB action on Sunday, May 18, including a pick for the Yankees-Mets matchup.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried has led them to a 8-1 record in his nine starts in 2025. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

It’s only right that the New York Yankees and New York Mets play the rubber match of a three-game set during rivalry weekend as a standalone game on Sunday Night Baseball.

Sunday’s MLB action features a bunch of great matchups, and I’m eyeing three for today’s MLB best bets. The Subway Series is one of them, as the Yankees send ace Max Fried to the mound with a chance to take two of their three games against the Mets.

Meanwhile, there is an AL West matchup that features a lopsided pitching matchup to begin the day and an NL West/AL West clash with two stud pitchers on the mound that could be worth a look when it comes to the total.

Here’s a full breakdown of each of my favorite bets for the MLB action on Sunday, May 18. 

MLB Best Bets for Sunday, May 18

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Yankees Moneyline (-175) vs. New York Mets
• Houston Astros Moneyline (-135) vs. Texas Rangers
• Seattle Mariners-San Diego Padres UNDER 7 (+105)

New York Yankees Moneyline (-175) vs. New York Mets

The Yankees are heavily favored in this series finale with Max Fried on the mound, and for good reason.

This season, New York is 8-1 in Fried’s nine starts, although it did lose his last outing despite him giving up just one run through five frames. Overall, Fried has allowed just seven earned runs in nine outings, giving up just 40 hits in 56.2 innings of work.

That gives the Yanks a pretty sizable advantage over David Peterson, who has a 3.05 ERA for the Mets but enters this start with a 1.35 WHIP. According to Statcast, Peterson ranks in just the 33rd percentile in MLB in expected ERA.

Both of these teams are pretty elite on offense, but I can’t fade Fried at home. New York’s ace is 6-0 in games that he’s earned the decision in this season while Peterson is just 2-2. The Mets have won four more of Peterson’s starts, but I’m not sold on them having enough offense to do so on Sunday night. 

Houston Astros Moneyline (-135) vs. Texas Rangers

The Houston Astros have lefty ace Framber Valdez on the mound on Sunday, and I think they’re a little undervalued as small favorites against the Texas Rangers.

Valdez is just 2-4 in games that he’s earned a decision in this season, but he has a 3.54 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of his nine outings.

Meanwhile, Texas righty Jack Leiter has been far from lights out in 2025, posting a 4.34 ERA in six starts. He has a 1.20 WHIP and has walked 14 batters this season, including 13 over his last four appearances.

The Rangers’ offense is also questionable, ranking just 25th in MLB in OPS this season. 

With Valdez on the bump, I’ll back Houston to win this series finale and make a push back into a top spot in the AL West.  

Seattle Mariners-San Diego Padres UNDER 7 (+105)

The Seattle Mariners-San Diego Padres matchup features one of the best pitching matchups of Sunday’s action.

Here’s a look at how the two starters in this game stack up in 2025:

• San Diego: Michael King (4-1, 2.32 ERA, 0.99 WHIP)
• Seattle: Bryan Woo (4-1, 2.84 ERA , 0.88 WHIP)

Both of these starters are allowing under a baserunner per inning this season, and I think that sets them up well to help this total to UNDER seven runs on Sunday.

Woo has just two starts this season where he’s given up more than three earned runs while King has a 1.89 ERA over his last eight outings. He did struggle a bit in his first outing of the season, but he’s been lights out since.

Plus, the Seattle offense is just 27th in MLB in OPS over its last 15 days. So, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Mariners struggle to get anything going with King on the mound.

Lastly, San Diego is sixth in MLB in bullpen ERA and Seattle is 11th. These teams both are too good on the mound for me to take the OVER on Sunday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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