Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Yankees-Mariners, Paul Skenes and Brewers-Guardians)

Breaking down the best bets to place for the MLB action on Monday, May 12, including a pick for Paul Skenes.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes is an interesting prop target on Monday. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Looking to bet on some baseball to kick off the week?

Monday’s action features 11 games, and one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game – Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes – is on the mound.

Skenes is taking on the New York Mets, and he’s a player to consider in the prop market for tonight’s action. But, that’s not the only bet to place.

I’ve got a little something for everyone on May 12, as there is a total in an interleague clash that I believe is a great target and one AL East team that could be in line to pick up a road win.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the best bets for the MLB action on Monday night. 

MLB Best Bets for Monday, May 12

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Milwaukee Brewers-Cleveland Guardians UNDER 8 (-108)
• Paul Skenes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
• New York Yankees Moneyline (-135) vs. Seattle Mariners

Milwaukee Brewers-Cleveland Guardians UNDER 8 (-108)

Monday’s pitching matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians is a good one, as Freddy Peralta (4-2, 2.18 ERA) gets the ball for the Brew Crew against Cleveland’s Ben Lively (2-2, 3.46 ERA).

This season, Peralta has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his eight outings, and the Brewers have combined for more than eight runs in just one of those games. Milwaukee is already one of the best UNDER teams in MLB (23-15-3), and it certainly shows when the team’s ace takes the bump.

While Lively hasn’t been as lights out as Peralta, he still has five outings where he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs and has not given up more than four runs in any start. Lively has been great in May, allowing just seven hits and one earned run across 11.0 innings of work.

The Guardians and Brewers are both below average offenses this season as well. Just take a look at how the rank in a few key categories: 

OPS

• Brewers: 24th
• Guardians: 18th

Runs Scored

• Brewers: 13th
• Guardians: 17th

Batting Average

• Brewers: 23rd
• Guardians: 22nd

If both starters continue their hot starts to 2025, I think this game falls short of eight runs with ease on Monday. 

Paul Skenes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)

This season, Skenes has pitched well for the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting a 2.77 ERA across eight starts.

However, he has not been as dominant when it comes to striking batters out as he was last season.

As a rookie, Skenes averaged 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but that number has dipped to 8.7 in his second season. Plus, the righty has failed to pick up seven or more punchouts in five of his eight outings in 2025.

This month, Skenes has just eight total strikeouts in two starts, and now he has a tough matchup against a New York team that is No. 5 in MLB in K’s per game (7.54). Now, Skenes could end up having one of his better starts of the season, but bettors would also be asking the Mets to hit their season average in Ks with Skenes still on the mound.

The advanced numbers also aren’t great for Skenes when compared to last season. He ranks in the 65th percentile in strikeout percentage, 62nd percentile in whiff percentage and 59th percentile in chase rate in 2025. 

Last season, Skenes was in the 95th percentile in strikeout percentage and 75th percentile in both whiff percentage and chase rate, per Statcast. 

New York Yankees Moneyline (-135) vs. Seattle Mariners

The New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East heading into Monday’s series opener with the Seattle Mariners, who are in first in the AL West.

Unfortunately for the Mariners, they’ve dropped three games in a row, which has dwindled their lead in the division to just two games.

On Monday, the Yankees have Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 4.79 ERA) on the mound against Seattle’s Emerson Hancock (1-1, 5.70 ERA).

Not the great pitching matchup, huh?

While Schmidt started the season late due to injury and struggled in his first two outings, he has allowed just three runs and eight hits over his last two starts (11.0 innings of work). Hancock has also been better since a rough start, posting a 3.52 ERA in his last four outings.

Still, I’m buying the Yankees in this matchup because they have a superior offense. New York ranks in the top five in OPS, runs scored and batting average this season while the Mariners are ninth in OPS, 15th in batting average and 10th in runs scored.

Those are solid numbers, but New York also has a much better run differential (+75) compared to Seattle (+17). 

Schmidt has been a solid pitcher for New York in recent seasons, and he appears to be settling in after a couple of rough outings. The Yanks are also 3-1 when he’s on the mound in 2025. 

I think they’re worth a look as road favorites on Monday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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