Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Reds-Rockies YRFI Pick and Matt Waldron Walk Prop)

Plus-money bets in the Reds/Rockies and Padres/Angels games present value.
May 5, 2024; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner
May 5, 2024; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner / Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

There's a smaller MLB Monday slate with only eight games on the schedule, but there are still endless ways to get in on the action.   Let's look at a couple of plus-money plays that could present some value. 

Reds vs. Rockies Over 1.5 Runs Scored in the First Inning (+160) at DraftKings

Welcome to Coors Field, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB. It's so friendly this game total is set at 11.5 runs. In the 25 games played at Coors this season, game totals are averaging 9.72, with an average of 1.24 runs per game scored in the first inning. 

Ryan Feltner gets the start at home for the Rockies. Feltner has an ERA of 5.31 this season when pitching at home, and he has allowed 12 earned runs across four starts (20 ⅓ innings pitched) in Denver.  But it gets even juicier.  

Feltner has an ERA of 11.45 in the first innings of all games he has pitched this season, allowing 14 earned runs across 11 first innings.  

Lefty Andrew Abbott starts for the Reds. Abbott is a groundball pitcher and is not susceptible to giving up many runs. However, like Feltner, he is weakest in the first inning. Abbott has an ERA of 6.75 in the first inning this season, allowing eight earned runs across 11 first innings pitched. The Rockies have the 11th-best BA vs. left-handed pitching this season (.252). 

Now, throw this into the mix: no team has scored more first-inning runs than the Colorado Rockies since May 21 (10), and the Reds have scored the fourth-most in that time span (7).  

This is far from a lock, but it seems more likely than the 38.5% implied probability a +160 payout suggests.

Matt Waldron Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+115) at DraftKings

The "lock" in this game is on the other side of the mound. It's almost a given Angels pitcher Tyler Anderson will exceed this walk prop, but Vegas has it juiced to -190 odds,  so I will pass and instead take on a little more risk for the payout with Waldron. 

Waldron has exceeded this prop in six of 11 games started this season. Though the Angels aren't a particularly patient team, walking only 7.7% of the time this season, Waldron's road splits suggest we shouldn't be too concerned.  

Waldron has issued only four free passes in five home starts, but he has issued a whopping 15 in six away games (30 innings pitched), for an average of one walk for every two innings pitched. An even more interesting tidbit? Waldron allowed more than 1.5 walks in five of his six road starts this year.

For plus money, I'll bite. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Jennifer Piacenti

JENNIFER PIACENTI

In addition to being a fantasy sports and betting analyst at Sports Illustrated, Jennifer is a radio host for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, and she hosts her own podcast, “Waiver Wired” on the Extra Points podcast network. Jennifer has been nominated for multiple FSWA awards for her NFL DFS video series. She’s a Scott Fish Bowl Finalist, and she finished third overall in the 2021 NFFC post-season mini. Jennifer is also a featured expert on MLB Network’s “Bettor’s Eye,” and a member of the esteemed Tout Wars, the fantasy baseball battle of the experts.