Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Guardians/Royals NRFI Pick, Brewers/Cardinals ML Prediction)

Two bets on AL Central and NL Central games.

Sep 3, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames (27) hits a double against the St. Louis Cardinals in the eleventh inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images / Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

There are some fun divisional rivalries tonight, and I’ve found two that are worth a wager. 

Let’s back a home dog in an NL Central matchup, and there’s a nice NRFI option in the AL Central. All odds are according to DraftKings.

Let’s take a look. 

MLB Best Bets Today, Wednesday, Sept. 4

• Guardians at Royals NRFI (-120)
• Milwaukee Brewers ML (+102)

Guardians at Royals NRFI (-120)

These two teams have a lot at stake, and tonight both pitchers should be on their game.

Ben Lively gets the start for Cleveland. In 24 starts this season, Lively has an ERA of just 1.18 in the first inning. He’s allowed only three earned runs across those 24 innings. In his single start vs. the Royals this season, he allowed just two earned runs total, with neither scoring in the first.

The Royals have been sluggish lately. They have averaged just 3.73 runs per game across the past two weeks of play. They have not scored in the first inning in three consecutive games. They really seem to be missing Vinnie Pasquantino. 

Seth Lugo gets the start at home for the Royals. He has a 2.25 ERA in the first inning this season, allowing just seven earned runs across 28 first-innings pitched.

Cleveland has been hitting better than the Royals lately, but they have not scored in the first inning of away games 78% of the time this season. 

Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+102) vs Cardinals

Let’s back the home team for plus money tonight. Cardinals pitcher Sonny Gray has been strong this season with a 3.96 ERA and nearly 11 K per nine innings, but he has struggled when on the road. His away ERA is 5.56 as opposed to his home ERA of 2.63. He also has a 5.52 ERA since the All-Star Break.   

This season, Gray has struggled vs. the Brewers, allowing them a .261 batting average. Gray’s ERA vs. Milwaukee this season is 6.62. He’s allowed 12 hits and eight earned runs across two starts this season. 

The Brewers have averaged 5.80 runs per game across the past two weeks of play (4th in MLB), making the home team look like a value play tonight.