Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Take Astros on Run Line vs. the Blue Jays)

SI Betting's Jennifer Piacenti breaks down her favorite bet in Major League Baseball for the action on July 1.

Jun 25, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) pitches against the Colorado Rockies in the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

It may be a small slate in Major League Baseball on Monday, but we have plenty of ways to get in on some plus-money action. 

Let’s have some fun this afternoon!

MLB Best Bets Today

Houston Astros  -1.5 (+115) vs. Toronto Blue Jays at DraftKings

The Houston Astros are the hottest team in MLB, having won nine of their last 10 games.

That includes taking two out of three from the second-hottest team in June -- the New York Mets -- this weekend.  

A lot of credit for that hot streak can go to pitcher Hunter Brown, who, after a rough start to the season, pitched to the league’s lowest ERA for June (1.16),  lowering his season ERA to 4.37. 

Brown has been striking batters out at nearly 10 per nine innings this season. He has strung together seven consecutive quality starts since the beginning of May, and there’s little reason to doubt he will make it to eight versus a Toronto team batting just .237 this season (17th).  

The Jays will start righty Yariel Rodriguez this afternoon.  

Rodriguez got blown up in his last start vs. the Cleveland Guardians, not making it out of the second inning. His ERA is 5.94 for the season, and he’s walking batters at an extraordinarily high rate: 6.11 per nine innings. 

That’s likely to spell trouble vs. an Astros team that just put up a 10-spot on the Mets and has averaged 5.44 runs per game this month. 

By contrast, the Jays have scored 4.07 runs per game in June and 4.0 runs per game this season at home.  

Yes, the Astros bullpen may be tired after extras yesterday, but they still have Rafael Montero, Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader available.

On the other side, Toronto's bullpen ranks 28th in ERA for the season and has a 5.07 ERA for June.

The Astros took two out of three from the Jays earlier this season, shutting them out in both wins (8-0, 10-0). I like the payout for the Astros to win by two versus a Toronto team with a losing record at home (20-21). 

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.