Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Phillies Have Edge Out West)

Reed Wallach | Aug 8, 2024

Aug 7, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) is congratulated by shortstop Trea Turner (7), center fielder Johan Rojas (18) and left fielder Austin Hays (9) after a three-run home run in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks start a pivotal weekend series on Thursday at Chase Field in Arizona in hopes of furthering each team's postseason standing.

Two of the most potent lineups in baseball will look to prevail on Thursday night on a condensed slate, keep reading why the Phillies are in good shape against struggling starter in Diamondbacks' left hander Jordan Montgomery.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Giants vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (+110)

The Giants aren’t worthy of being road favorites with the suspect Kyle Harrison on the mound. The left hander is in the bottom 10th percentile in hard hit percentage which can lead to a ton of runs for the Nationals, who are top 10 in OPS in the month of August. 

Brewers vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-140)

Charlie Morton can turn back the clock on Thursday afternoon with his knee-buckling curveball that should overwhelm a Brewers team that strikes out at an incredibly high clip, top five in K’s over the last month.

I’ll stick with the home favorite in the series finale. 

Padres vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick:  Padres (-110)

I’ll fade Luis L. Ortiz on Thursday, who has struggled to find success with his punch out pitch, ranking in the 22nd percentile in strikeout rate. 

If he can’t find strikeouts against the Padres, San Diego should feast with a top three OPS in the month of August. 

Mets vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-160)

I’ll side with the sweet swinging Mets lineup to finish this series against the Rockies with a win. 

New York faces left hander Austin Gomber of the Rockies, a plus matchup for the team which checks in sixth in OPS on the year against southpaws. 

Reds vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-175)

Is a Cy Young candidate emerging from the Cincinnati pitching staff? 

Hunter Greene has been on a tear since June 1. He has an ERA 2.60 since then, spanning 11 appearances while punching out more than seven batters per start. The flame throwing righty hasn’t allowed an earned run in the last three starts. 

Angels vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (+205)

New York typically has too much firepower for a lowly Angels squad, but the Yankees struggle against left handed pitching, hitting at the big league average in terms of OPS. 

I’ll take the big price on the underdog with left hander Tyler Anderson toeing the rubber for the visitors. 

Orioles vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-115)

I’m going to back the more reliable team in the Orioles in a near coin flip situation. 

Both pitchers, Dean Kremer of Baltimore and Kevin Gausman of Toronto, have underlying metrics that suggest they are pitching worse than mid-4’s ERA, but the Orioles have the far more potent offense that can get this victory home in AL East play. 

Rays vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cardinals (-125)

I’ll fade Shane Baz of the Rays, who is trying to work himself into shape down the stretch of the season. He has a 3.60 ERA, but his underlying stats suggest he has been far worse in his five starts, posting an xERA of 5.69. 

I’ll take the Cards in a projected tight game. 

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-110)

The Phillies are in good shape on Thursday night against the Diamondbacks, who are starting the struggling Jordan Montgomery. The left hander has fallen off in his first season with Arizona and is showing little signs of improving. He ranks in the fourth percentile in strikeout percentage and has been torched by hard contact (26th percentile). 

Philadelphia is the best hitting team against left handed pitching, which is going to make for an explosive Thursday night showing. 

Tigers vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-205)

Bryan Woo has struggled to stay healthy this season, but when he is on the mound he has been electric, posting a 2.08 ERA with a relatively fair xERA of 2.40. He is walking less than three percent of batters, 99th percentile in the bigs, which is crucial against a Tigers team that is bottom five in batting average. 

If Woo doesn’t allow much contact and few free bases, I’m happy to take the home favorite. 

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