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Nationals vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, June 10

Sean Treppedi

Griffin Canning gets a ripe matchup against the Nationals, who he had success against earlier this year — pointing us to his outs prop.
Griffin Canning gets a ripe matchup against the Nationals, who he had success against earlier this year — pointing us to his outs prop. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
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The Mets breeze back into Queens after a sweep of the Rockies that featured a dominant offense. Now they will look to top the Nationals after splitting a series earlier in the season with them.

Washington sits 11 ½ games behind the Mets’ lead in the NL East and just dropped back-to-back series. 

Washington’s MacKenzie Gore (3-5, 2.87 ERA) will take on Griffin Canning (6-2, 2.90 ERA) in the series opener on Tuesday. Gore hasn’t allowed a run in two straight starts. Canning is hot off his season-best performance where he struck out seven and pitched six shutout innings. 

Let’s talk about a player prop and a game prediction that we can consider for this matchup.

Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

  • Nationals +1.5 (-170)
  • Mets -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline

  • Nationals (+132)
  • Mets (-156)

Total

  • Over 7.5 (-115)
  • Under 7.5 (-105)

Nationals vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

  • Nationals: MacKenzie Gore (3-5, 2.87 ERA)
  • Mets: Griffin Canning (6-2, 2.90 ERA)

Nationals vs. Mets How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, June 10, 2025
  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Citi Field
  • How to Watch (TV): SNY, MASN
  • Nationals Record: 30-35
  • Mets Record: 42-24

Nationals vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

I believe this game has potential to see some offense, but Canning pitched five effective innings against the Nats on April 28 in the Mets’ 19-5 victory. He’s hit 18 outs in only two of his last five starts, but one of those was that last start where he strung up the Dodgers to only allow three hits and 0 earned runs. The Nationals should present as a lighter challenge given their inconsistent offense that ranks No. 24 overall with a .306 OBP. Canning has also found significant success in retiring lefty hitters this year, which there is no shortage of in the Nats lineup.

Nationals vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

The weather forecast for Tuesday evening looks to favor hitter-friendly conditions in the mid-to-high 70s and a breeze blowing toward the outfield. Gore’s been one of the game’s most effective strikeout pitchers (35% strikeout rate), though he’s backed by an absolutely horrid bullpen that’s posted a 5.81 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. 

It is the second-worst bullpen in the sport. The Mets’ bats should still be swinging confidently after participating in a three-day batting clinic against Colorado in the altitude. Canning is breaking out this season, but he is a heavy regression candidate owning a 4.10 xERA. A lot of his success has come from getting high ground ball rates, but he’s leaving runners stranded at an 82% rate. We’ll expect the runs to keep coming at Citi on Tuesday.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

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Sean Treppedi
SEAN TREPPEDI

Sean is a writer for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has written and edited sports betting and sports news editorial for the New York Post, Newsweek, Action Network, Philadelphia Inquirer, Chicago Tribune, and Athlon Sports. Sean lives in the New York City area and primarily focuses on pinpointing market value across the NFL, MLB, NHL, and college football.

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