Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for De'Aaron Fox, Kyrie Irving, Mark Williams)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Wednesday, Jan. 22, including a pick for De'Aaron Fox.

Sacramento Kings guard De'Aaron Fox is a great prop target tonight. / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Wednesday’s NBA action features several contenders in action – and a ton of road favorites – including the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves.

All of those teams are favored on the road, while squads like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers are also in action. Dallas, Houston and Los Angeles are all home underdogs on Wednesday. 

When it comes to tonight’s NBA Best Bets I’m not looking at any sides. Instead, it’s a prop night! 

After a 1-1 night on Tuesday (our Tyler Herro prop was voided after he was ruled out), I’m targeting players such as Kyrie Irving and De’Aaron Fox in the prop market on Wednesday’s loaded slate.

Here’s a full breakdown of each of these picks for Jan. 22. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 122-122-4 (-0.55 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1132-1067-26 (+37.53 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Jaylin Williams OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Mark Williams OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-140) – 0.5 unit
• De’Aaron Fox OVER 28.5 Points and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Kyrie Irving OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-130) – 0.5 unit

Jaylin Williams OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

With Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein out for the Thunder, Jaylin Williams has started three games in a row and put up some decent numbers: 

• vs. Cleveland: 5 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist
• @ Dallas: 12 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists
• vs. Brooklyn: 14 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists

Williams has blown past this total in two of those three games, and he could see even more touches on Wednesday if wing Jalen Williams is ruled out (he’s currently listed as questionable). 

OKC is a massive favorite against the Utah Jazz, who have listed a litany of players on their injury report, and this is a favorable matchup for the OKC big man.

Utah is just 29th in defensive rating and 27th in opponent assists per game, and Williams should get plenty of chances on the glass as the No. 1 center for the Thunder tonight. I wouldn't be shocked if he comes close to this prop on points and rebounds alone. 

Mark Williams OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-140) – 0.5 unit

Charlotte Hornets big man Mark Williams has been dominant on the glass heading into Wednesday’s matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Williams is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game this season, but he’s cleared 10.5 boards in four straight games, playing 29 or more minutes in each of them. In fact, Williams is 5-for-5 on grabbing 11 or more rebounds when he plays at least 29 minutes this season. 

Memphis is one of the better rebounding teams in the league, but it also ranks No. 1 in pace, leading to a ton of opportunities to hit the glass. Overall, the Grizzlies are 12th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game.

Williams is averaging over 15.0 rebound chances per game this season, but that number has skyrocketed as his minutes have increased over his last 10 contests. Over this 10-game stretch, Williams is putting up 11.9 rebounds on 19.3 chances per game. 

I think he’s in line for another huge game on the glass tonight. 

De’Aaron Fox OVER 28.5 Points and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit

De’Aaron Fox has put together a couple of down scoring games for the Sacramento Kings, but he’s in a prime bounce-back spot against a reeling Golden State Warriors team that won’t have Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga or Brandin Podziemski on Wednesday.

Fox is averaging 25.9 points and 6.3 assists per game this season, so we’re getting a pretty big discount on this prop with it set at 28.5. In his last 10 games against Golden State, Fox is averaging 27.5 points and 7.1 assists per game, clearing 28.5 points and assists in nine of those 10 matchups.

In addition to that, the Kings guard has 29 or more P+A in 25 of his 39 games overall in the 2024-25 campaign. He’s an absolute steal at this number if he can shake his shooting struggles (10-for-29 from the field in his last two games). 

Kyrie Irving OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-130) – 0.5 unit

Dallas guard Kyrie Irving is going to have a major workload on Wednesday against the Minnesota Timberwolves with Luka Doncic out and Klay Thompson questionable for this matchup.

Irving knocked down three shots from beyond the arc in each of his last two games, and he shot 5-for-14 from 3 against Minnesota back on Christmas Day. In fact, Irving has made at least three made shots from deep in eight of his 14 games since Dec. 1, shooting over 38 percent from deep over that stretch. 

In games that Luka Doncic has in his career, Irving has cleared 2.5 made 3s in 17 of 24 of them. I love him to get to that number again on Wednesday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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