Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Julius Randle, Giannis, Bucks)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Nov. 3.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a solid prop target on Monday. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

A major nine-game slate in the NBA kicks off this week, with a bunch of NBA Cup matchups waiting on Friday. 

There are several double-digit favorites on the board on Monday, including the Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics. While that makes it a little tough when it comes to betting on spreads, I have a few player props that I’m eyeing tonight. 

Sunday’s slate was a tough one, as Luka Doncic came one point, rebound or assist shy of hitting his prop for us while Tyrese Maxey was pulled early in a blowout win over the Brooklyn Nets.

Still, I’m right back at it with four picks for Monday’s action as the NBA rounds into Week 3 of the 2025-26 season.

Here’s a breakdown of each play for Nov. 3. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 16-20 (-5.81 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1307-1257-27 (+27.34 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Julius Randle OVER 24.5 Points (-117)
• Milwaukee Bucks ML + Giannis 25+ Points (-150)
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. OVER 12.5 Points (-123)
• Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (-124)

Julius Randle OVER 24.5 Points (-117)

Since Anthony Edwards went down against Indiana with a hamstring injury a few games ago, Randle has scored 31 (against the Pacers), 24, 33 and 30 points while taking 18.0 shots per game. He's cleared 24.5 points in four of his six games this season, averaging 27.2 points per game while shooting 56.4 percent from the field and 47.1 percent from 3.

Someone has to score the ball for this Minnesota team, and Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid have gotten off to relatively slow starts in the 2025-26 season. So, Randle is likely going to be called upon to be the 1A in this offense on Monday against a terrible Brooklyn Nets team.

The Nets rank dead last in the NBA in defensive rating this season, and they've given up 128.0 points per game, good for 29th in the league. To make matters worse for Brooklyn, it is 27th in opponent points in the paint per game.

All of that lines up well for Randle's bully-ball style, and I expect him to clear this number with ease if his shot volume remains in the upper teens to low 20s.

Milwaukee Bucks ML + Giannis 25+ Points (-150)

Bucks Moneyline

Milwaukee is off to a 4-2 start this season and is a road favorite on Monday against the one-win Indiana Pacers, who are down Obi Toppin, Benedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, TJ McConnell and of course Tyrese Haliburton. 

The Pacers rank just 27th in the NBA in net rating, and they’re going to have a hard time keeping up in this game offensively against a Bucks team that is fourth in the NBA in offensive rating and first in effective field goal percentage in the 2025-26 season. 

The Pacers did upset the Golden State Warriors, but they needed 27 points from Pascal Siakam, 31 from Aaron Nesmith and 25 from Quenton Jackson to win at home by five. 

Indiana had just 15 bench points in that game, and it simply doesn’t have the depth necessary to compete with a relatively healthy Bucks team.

I like Milwaukee to win this outright in a two-pick parlay. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo 25+ Points

As for Giannis, he should easily find his way to 25 points on Monday night. 

The Pacers have been a fun opponent for Antetokounmpo to face, as he's averaging 31.1 points, 13.7 rebounds and 7.1 assists in his last 10 games against Indiana. Now, with Myles Turner on Giannis' team in Milwaukee, Indiana has even less rim protection to deal with the star big man in this matchup.

This season, Antetokounmpo has scored 26 or more points in every game, clearing 31.5 points in three of his five contests.

He should be in the mix to clear this line once again, as the Pacers are just 25th in the NBA in opponent points per game and 25th in opponent points in the paint per game. Giannis also has 25 or more points in nine of his last 10 games against Indiana. 

Antetokounmpo does most of his damage from inside the arc, leading the league in field goals made per game (13.0), 2-pointers attempted per game and 2-pointers made per game. He should have a field day against this Indiana defense on Monday night.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. OVER 12.5 Points (-123)

Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. is off to a great start this season, averaging 18.7 points per game while shooting 63.8 percent from the field. He’s coming off a monster game on Sunday against the Los Angeles Lakers, dropping 31 points on 16 shots. 

Jaquez has 28, six and 31 points in his last three games, but he’s scored 13 or more points in five of his six matchups heading into tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers.

With Norman Powell (groin) banged up (he missed Sunday’s loss to L.A.), Jaquez should remain a focal part of the Miami offense off the bench.

The Heat forward is averaging 11.5 shots per game, taking at least 12 shots in all but two of his contests. He’s a steal at this number with Miami desperate for offensive options with Tyler Herro out. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (-124)

Nikola Jokic is averaging 10.8 assists per game for the Denver Nuggets, picking up 10 or more dimes in four of his five games this season.

He has a terrific matchup on Monday night against a Sacramento Kings team that is 23rd in the NBA in opponent assists per game and 27th in defensive rating through six games this season.

Jokic has torched the Kings in recent seasons, averaging 11.6 assists per game over his last five matchups against them picking up 11 or more dimes in four of those games. He should be able to take advantage of this weak defense, and he comes into this game averaging 17.8 potential assists per game.

That gives the Nuggets star a terrific floor in this market on Monday.

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