Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Paolo Banchero, Tyrese Haliburton and More)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Sunday, Jan. 12, including a pick for Tyrese Haliburton.

ndiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Sunday may be all about the NFL Playoffs in the sports world, but there is a huge NBA slate to dive into as well, with some intriguing matchups featuring playoff contenders: 

• Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks
• Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
• Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
• Philadelphia 76ers vs. Orlando Magic

In addition to those four great games, the Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics and the surging Sacramento Kings also are all playing on Sunday.

So, what better time to place some NBA bets?

Here’s a breakdown of the plays that I’m eyeing on Sunday as we inch closer and closer to positive in the 2024-25 season. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 107-106-4 (-2.18 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1117-1051-26 (+35.92 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Paolo Banchero OVER 23.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Brandon Miller OVER 17.5 Points (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Tyrese Haliburton OVER 26.5 Points and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Josh Hart OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Milwaukee Bucks +4 (-112) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
• Quentin Grimes OVER 2.5 Assists (-166) – 0.5 unit

Paolo Banchero OVER 23.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Paolo Banchero made his return to the lineup for Orlando on Friday night, scoring 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting (5-for-8 from 3) in just under 27 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks. Orlando scored just 106 points in the game, but it’s clear that Banchero is going to get his fair share of shots as long as he’s in the game.

There’s a chance Paolo has a minutes limit again on Sunday, but with Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner and Moritz Wagner all out once again, the Magic may need another 20-plus shots from Banchero to hang around in this matchup. 

So far this season, the All-Star forward is averaging 29.8 points per game across six contests, putting up 24 or more four times (scoring 31 or more in each of those games). I’m buying a big game for Banchero with no other viable leading options for Orlando’s offense. 

Brandon Miller OVER 17.5 Points (-130) – 0.5 unit

Charlotte Hornets wing Brandon Miller has been solid in his second NBA season, averaging 21.2 points per game while shooting 40.3 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from beyond the arc. 

While I’d love to see Miller’s field goal percentage increase, the former No. 2 overall pick is averaging a whopping 18.3 shots per game – more shots than his points prop is set at on Sunday.

Over his last 16 games, Miller has cleared 17.5 points 14 times, averaging 24.4 points per game over that stretch. Phoenix has been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as of late, ranking 22nd in the league in defensive rating for the season. 

I’ll buy Miller after the Hornets had an extended period off due to their games in Los Angeles getting postponed. 

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 26.5 Points and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton has put up worse numbers on the road this season – by a significant margin – but he’s started to turn the tide as of late. Here’s a look at Hali’s last five road games: 

• @ Brooklyn: 23 points, 8 assists, 5-of-12 FG, 4-for-7 3P
• @ Miami: 33 points, 15 assists, 13-of-21 FG, 6-for-13 3P
• @ Boston: 31 points, 7 assists, 11-of-19 FG, 1-for-6 3P
• @ Boston: 19 points, 9 assists, 6-of-13 FG, 3-for-8 3P
• @ Golden State: 16 points, 12 assists, 6-of-11 FG, 2-for-7 3P

Haliburton has cleared 26.5 points and assists in all of those games, and he’s blown past this number in seven of his last eight games and eight of his last 10 overall. 

This is a tough matchup against the East’s No. 1 seed in Cleveland, but the Cavs have slipped to 11th in defensive rating. Don’t be shocked if Haliburton continues his hot stretch on Sunday. 

Josh Hart OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit

If you’re looking for one of the most consistent bets in basketball, just take Josh Hart’s rebounds prop.

The Knicks guard has been awesome on the glass this season, averaging 9.2 rebounds per game on 15.9 rebound chances. Hart is also grabbing an impressive 3.1 contested rebounds per game. 

Recently, Hart’s rebounding has been even better than usual. He’s picked up at least 11 boards in nine of his last 10 games, averaging 12.6 boards per game over that stretch. Now, he takes on a Bucks team that ranks 20th in rebounding percentage and 23rd in opponent rebounds per game.

Hart is an easy player to back in this market this afternoon. 

Milwaukee Bucks +4 (-112) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit

Despite a great month of December, the Knicks only have a 3.5-game cushion on the Bucks for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they’ve struggled with a tougher schedule in January. 

New York has not only struggled against elite competition, but it has one of the worst bench units in the NBA – mainly because Tom Thibodeau isn’t using his bench much this season. 

The Knicks are 0-5 against the top two teams in each conference this season (Cleveland, Boston, OKC and Houston).

In those five games, New York has been outscored by 76 points (an average margin of defeat of 15.2 PPG).

— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) January 11, 2025

Over the 9 games they’ve played since Christmas, the Knicks bench is averaging under 17 points per game in just 11 minutes a night

The lowest in the league, by far, in each category

Every other team in the NBA is getting more than 24 PPG from their reserves during this stretch

— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) January 11, 2025

With Miles McBride (probable) expected to play on Sunday, that could lift the Knicks bench a bit – but not enough to lay the points with them in this game.

The Bucks are 4-3 against the spread as road underdogs this season, and New York’s only wins this month are against the lowly Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors. 

I think the Bucks are live to pull off an upset in this game, especially if the Knicks don’t have things rolling on offense. Over their last 10 games, the Knicks have slipped to 12th in offensive rating (in that stretch) after once holding the No. 1 spot in the NBA in offensive rating this season. 

Quentin Grimes OVER 2.5 Assists (-166) – 0.5 unit

With Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving out once again on Sunday, guard Quentin Grimes should continue to see an expanded role in the Dallas offense.

Over his last seven games, Grimes has made two starts and is playing 29.3 minutes per game for Jason Kidd. That’s resulted in an uptick in scoring (16.3 points per game) and passing (4.4 assists per game).

Grimes has at least three dimes in all seven of those games, and now he’s facing a Denver team that ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent assists per game. It quite literally couldn’t be a better matchup for the Mavs guard on Sunday.

In this seven-game stretch, Grimes is averaging 7.4 potential assists per game. He should easily pick up three assists against this Denver defense.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.