Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Scottie Barnes, Bam Adebayo)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Thursday, Jan. 23, including a pick for Bam Adebayo.

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo is a great prop target on Thursday. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Seven different NBA teams are playing the second night of a back-to-back on Thursday, making it a little tougher than usual to bet on today’s slate. 

There are going to be plenty of players up in the air on the injury report, and several teams have struggled on the second night of a back-to-back, making them hard to trust against the spread.

So, I’m eyeing a few player props on Thursday instead, including rebounding props for big men Bam Adebayo and Nikola Vucevic. 

Here’s a breakdown of the three plays I’m considering for Jan. 23. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 123-125-4 (-1.67 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1133-1070-26 (+36.42 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Scottie Barnes OVER 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
• Nikola Vucevic OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-120)
• Bam Adebayo OVER 8.5 Rebounds (+100)

Scottie Barnes OVER 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)

Scottie Barnes has put together a few down scoring games as of late, shooting 4-for-16 and 6-for-13 from the field in his last two matchups.

However, I believe he’s in a prime spot to bounce back on Thursday night against the Atlanta Hawks, who are playing the second night of a back-to-back after a loss to the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday.

Atlanta ranks No. 2 in pace, No. 18 in defensive rating and No. 28 in opponent points per game, so we could see a high-scoring matchup tonight. That should benefit Barnes, who enters Thursday’s contest averaging 19.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game.

With Immanuel Quickley out, Barnes should see an even bigger role in the offense – especially as a playmaker. In 23 games without IQ this season, Barnes is putting up 19.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game. 

In a game that may turn into a track meet, I love Barnes to clear his PRA prop – especially if he gets back on track scoring the ball against a weak Hawks defense. 

Nikola Vucevic OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-120)

Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic has a perfect matchup on Thursday with a Golden State Warriors team playing the second night of a back-to-back after blowing a lead to the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night.

Vucevic has dominated Golden State on the glass in recent seasons, grabbing 11 or more boards in 10 of his last 12 matchups against the franchise. The Warriors have struggled on the boards this season, ranking 23rd in opponent rebounds per game. They’ll also be down Draymond Green and potentially Kevon Looney (left Wednesday’s game early), limiting their options in the frontcourt contest Vuc on the glass.

So far this season, the Bulls center is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game, clearing 10.5 boards in 10 of his last 13 games – averaging 11.8 boards per game over that stretch. 

Bam Adebayo OVER 8.5 Rebounds (+100)

Miami Heat big man Bam Adebayo has struggled mightily scoring the ball this season, but he’s still averaging 9.7 rebounds per game entering Thursday’s matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The emergence of rookie Kel’el Ware has moved Adebayo to a de-facto four in some lineups, and the Heat big man has at least nine rebounds in 10 of his last 14 games. 

The Bucks are actually a decent matchup for Bam, as they rank 20th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game this season. Not only that, but Adebayo has nine or more boards in seven of his nine matchups with Milwaukee since the start of the 2021-22 season. He also has thrived with Ware playing over 30 minutes in each of the last two games, grabbing 10 and 11 boards. 

I’ll gladly back the Heat captain at this favorable price tonight.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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