Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Rockets-Jazz)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Thursday, March 27, including a pick for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an elite prop target tonight. / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Thursday’s NBA action features a marquee matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies – a potential second-round playoff series this spring.

My favorite bet of the night is a player prop in this game, but there are other picks I’m eyeing as well.

Can another Western Conference contender – the Houston Rockets – take care of business on the road against a tanking Utah team? And, there could be some value in one Cleveland Cavaliers big man based on their latest injury report for Thursday’s action.

Here’s a complete breakdown of my favorite plays for the NBA games on Thursday, March 27. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 195-187-4 (-0.50 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1205-1132-26 (+37.59 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160) – 0.5 unit
• Houston Rockets -12.5 (-110) vs. Utah Jazz – 0.5 unit
• Jarrett Allen OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160) – 0.5 unit

As of late, Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been on fire from beyond the arc, hitting at least two 3-pointers in 17 of his 24 games since Feb. 1. On top of that, SGA is shooting a whooping 41.3 percent from deep during that stretch – way up from his season-long percentage of 37.2. 

I’m buying Gilgeous-Alexander on Thursday against a Memphis team that ranks 25th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game this season. The Grizzlies also play an uptempo style, ranking No. 1 in the league in pace, which should lead to a ton of shots and possessions for both sides.

SGA is taking nearly six 3-pointers per game since Feb. 1, giving him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop. 

Houston Rockets -12.5 (-110) vs. Utah Jazz – 0.5 unit

This season, Houston has thrived as a road favorite, going 11-8 against the spread while posting an average scoring margin of +8.8 points in those games.

On Thursday, the Rockets are massively favored against the Utah Jazz, who are sitting players like Lauri Markkanen and John Collins in this matchup. Utah is in full tank mode, and its last few games are a major indicator.

Utah has lost by 37, 29 and 22 to playoff teams in Memphis, Cleveland and Boston. The Rockets fall into that category, and they’ve dominated under .500 teams this season (28-11) overall. 

Over their last 10 games, the Rockets have the fourth-best net rating in the NBA (+10.5) while posting an impressive 9-1 record. Over that same stretch, Utah has the worst net rating in the NBA (-13.1) and has won just one of nine games. 

Jarrett Allen OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit

With Evan Mobley sitting out this game for Cleveland due to rest, Jarrett Allen is a terrific target in the prop market against the San Antonio Spurs. 

The Spurs are just 28th in the NBA this season in opponent rebounds per game, and they’ve struggled a bit on the glass since Victor Wembanyama was ruled out for the season with a blood clot. 

In eight games without Mobley this season, Allen is averaging 7.6 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game, picking up at least 11 boards in five of those matchups and at least 10 in seven of those games.

He’s a terrific bet at this number, especially since the Cavs still have some work to do in order to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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