Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Steph Curry, Amen Thompson, Raptors-76ers)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Sunday, March 30, including a pick for Steph Curry.

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images

We’re entering the home stretch of the 2024-25 NBA season, and several teams have already punched a ticket to the playoffs.

However, in the Western Conference, that isn’t the case. The Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves (all in action today) are fighting for the No. 6 seed (or better) in the West in hopes of avoiding the play-off tournament. 

With all of those teams – and several other playoff-caliber squads – in action, the playoff picture could look much different at the conclusion of Sunday’s games.

I’m betting on a few matchups for the eight-game slate tonight, including player props for Amen Thompson and Steph Curry. 

Let’s break down each of the plays for Sunday’s action! 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 196-189-4 (-1.06 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1206-1134-26 (+37.02 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Amen Thompson OVER 8.5 Rebounds (+100) – 0.5 unit
• Toronto Raptors -4 (-112) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit
• Golden State Warriors Parlay (-165) – 0.5 unit

Amen Thompson OVER 8.5 Rebounds (+100) – 0.5 unit

Houston Rockets wing Amen Thompson is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game this season, and he’s been terrific on the glass in his recent games, picking up nine or more boards in 13 of his last 14 games.

Over that stretch, Thompson is averaging 9.6 rebounds while playing over 35 minutes per game. 

He has a solid matchup on Sunday against the Phoenix Suns, as they are just 17th in the league in opponent rebounds per game. Thompson also had a smooth 10 boards the last time he played Phoenix.

With Tari Eason out tonight, Thompson should have a major role again in this game. 

Toronto Raptors -4 (-112) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit

The Philadelphia 76ers have dropped seven games in a row and nine of their last 10, including a double-digit loss to this Toronto team.

The Raptors have won three games in a row, pulling themselves out of the tanking race in the league, as they’re up to 27 wins on the season. Not only that, but the Raptors are going to have Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett in action in this game while the 76ers are playing the second night of a back-to-back.

Toronto has just 10 wins on the road this season, but this Philly team is impossible to trust. Philly has the third-worst net rating in the NBA over its last 10 games while the Raptors have the No. 1 defensive rating over that stretch.

Toronto has beaten up on a soft schedule as of late while the 76ers have lost to Miami, Washington, New Orleans, Atlanta and San Antonio during this long losing streak. 

Give me the Raptors to cover in this one. 

Golden State Warriors Parlay (-165) – 0.5 unit

• Steph Curry 20+ Points
• Golden State Warriors Moneyline

I’m all over the Golden State Warriors on Sunday against the San Antonio Spurs. Here’s who I’m betting it: 

Steph Curry 20+ Points

Curry had a solid game in his return to action, dropping 23 points against the New Orleans Pelicans, and he has a solid matchup on Sunday.

The Spurs are in the bottom 10 in the NBA in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and Curry has been on a tear since the trade deadline, averaging 27.8 points per game across his last 20 games.

On top of that, Curry has scored at least 20 points in all but three of those games – and one of them he was injured in.

He’s a must bet against this Spurs defense on Sunday. 

Golden State Warriors Moneyline

This is self explanatory, as the Warriors have gone 17-4 in 21 games with Jimmy Butler and now they have Curry back in action.

On top of that, Golden State has the rest advantage in this game with the Spurs playing the second night of a back-to-back after losing to Boston on Saturday. San Antonio has now dropped three games in a row and is just 11-11 against the spread as a home underdog.

Meanwhile, the Warriors got back on track with a win with Steph returning to the lineup in their last game.

This matchup means a ton to Golden State with the No. 6 seed in sight, and the Spurs would likely rather lose to improve their draft position. I’m going to back the Warriors every time in this spot. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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