Nevada vs. Fresno State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Monday, Feb. 10

Reed Wallach | Feb 10, 2025

Feb 4, 2025; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; Nevada Wolf Pack forward Nick Davidson (11) drives to the net against Air Force Falcons forward Luke Kearney (3) in the second half at Clune Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The nightcap of Monday’s college basketball slate is Nevada vs. Fresno State. 

The Wolf Pack have erased a three-game losing streak to win a pair of games in a row as it looks to make a late season push in Mountain West play. The team has an advantageous matchup as double digit favorites against Fresno State on Monday. The Bulldogs have dropped six straight and have one win in Mountain West play. 

Can Nevada take care of business and win with the necessary margin? Let’s break it down below. 

Nevada vs. Fresno State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Nevada: +15.5 (-118)
• Fresno State: -15.5 (-104)

Moneyline

• Nevada: +980
• Fresno State: -2000

Total: 142.5 (Over -104/Under -118)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Nevada vs. Fresno State How to Watch

• Date: Monday, February 10
• Game Time: 11:00 PM EST
• Venue: Fertitta Center
• How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1 
• Nevada Record: 5-19
• Fresno State Record: 13-10

Nevada vs. Fresno State Key Players to Watch

Nevada

Nick Davidson: The veteran big man is off one of his best performances of his career, dropping 25 points on Air Force last Tuesday. Despite the Wolf Pack struggling this season, the floor stretching big man continues to be among the best offensive threats in the league. Davidson is averaging nearly 16 points to go with six rebounds per game. 

Fresno State

Zaon Collins: The freshman guard is tasked with a ton on the porous Bulldogs roster. He has shown he is capable of doing the heavy lifting, scoring 17 or more in four Mountain West games already this season. He is capable from 3-point range, shooting 36% from beyond the arc on the year, which is what Nevada’s defense is built to give up.

Nevada vs. Fresno State Prediction and Pick

There’s a clash of styles in this Mountain West meeting as Fresno State ranks 18th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted tempo while Nevada is 350th in the same metric. 

The Wolf Pack have far more firepower than the Bulldogs, but the sheer amount of possessions makes me confident this game can go over the total. 

Fresno State is a below average 3-point shooting team as a unit, but against the Wolf Pack I’m willing to bank on decent shooting at a high rate as the team allows the second highest 3-point rate in Mountain West games while allowing teams to shoot nearly 38% from beyond the arc. 

Meanwhile, look for Davidson to dominate both inside and out against the MWC’s worst defense in terms of effective field goal percentage allowed. Further, Nevada should lean on its size advantage to bolster its free throw rate, which is tops in league play. 

While Fresno State’s offense has been shaky for much of the season, the team can use Nevada’s flaws against them. In addition to the team’s shaky 3-point defense, Nevada has the second highest free throw rate allowed, which can factor in heavily against a Fresno State team that is second in the Mountain West in free throw rate. 

All in all, I believe the Bulldogs’ fast tempo, mixed with some schematic edges for its lowly offense can send this game over the total. 

PICK: OVER 142.5 (available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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