NFL Best Bets for Divisional Round (Predictions for Commanders-Lions, Eagles-Rams, Bills-Ravens)

The Sports Illustrated Betting team shares their favorite bets on the board for the divisional round in the NFL playoffs.

The Eagles are favored at home in the divisional round. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Looking for some best bets for the four divisional round games in the NFL playoffs?

You've come the right place, as the SI Betting team and SI's NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan have been crunching the numbers throughout the week with all the latest trends, odds movement and more to find the edge in these matchups.

Will Josh Allen snap his 0-3 against the spread record as a playoff underdog? Will Jalen Hurts remain perfect against the spread at home in the postseason?

These are just two major trends in play this week after the Baltimore Ravens moved to favorites (they opened as slight underdogs) against the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round. While Saturday's matchups feature the No. 1 seeds (Kansas City and Detroit) -- both of which are major favorites -- there still could be a bet to place in those matchups.

Here's a full breakdown of the best bets from our team for this weekend's playoff action.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions OVER 55.5 (-110) – Iain MacMillan
• Baltimore Ravens Moneyline (-118) vs. Buffalo Bills – Peter Dewey
• Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs. Los Angeles Rams (-110) – Iain MacMillan

Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions OVER 55.5 (-110) – Iain MacMillan

Let’s not overthink how to bet on this game. These two teams have boasted some of the best offenses in the NFL this season, ranking inside the top five in EPA, Success Rate, and points per game. 

Not only that, but the Commanders’ rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has proven he’s at his best in big moments in big games.

Defensively, the Commanders have struggled in all areas which should open things up for the Lions to attack them both on the ground and through the air. For Detroit, its defense is still suffering from some significant injuries so I envision Daniels and company to find success moving the ball down the field early and often.

Let’s sit back and root for points in this NFC showdown.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs. Los Angeles Rams (-110) – Iain MacMillan

Don’t let the Los Angeles Rams win against the Minnesota Vikings convince you they belong in the conversation with the likes of the Eagles. Los Angeles currently ranks 19th in Net Yards per Play, 15th in EPA per Play, and 23rd in opponent EPA per Play. 

The Eagles rank fourth, sixth, and third in three metrics. From top to bottom, they’re a different class of football team.

Let’s also remember Saquon Barkley went for 255 yards on the ground against the Rams when these two teams met in the regular season. 

Unless Los Angeles has drawn up a successful game plan to slow down the rush attack of the Eagles, this could end up being a blow out in favor of Philadelphia. 

Baltimore Ravens Moneyline (-118) vs. Buffalo Bills – Peter Dewey

Early in the 2024 season, the Baltimore pass defense was downright awful, but the Ravens finished the regular season ranking eighth in the NFL EPA/Play on defense.

That – coupled with the No. 1 offense in the league – has made Baltimore the Super Bowl favorite in my eyes, even though it has to go on the road in the divisional round against Buffalo.

The line in this game has shifted in the Ravens’ favor (they opened as underdogs), and Josh Allen has not fared well as an underdog in his playoff career, going 0-3 against the spread and 0-3 straight up. 

Now, this is the first time he’s been a home underdog, but let’s not forget what the Ravens did to this Bills team in the regular season in a 35-10 win. Baltimore should be able to run on this defense (4.5 yards per carry allowed this season), and Buffalo ranks just 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

I love the Ravens to win this matchup and advance to a second straight AFC championship game.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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