NFL Cheat Sheet Week 7 (Best Spread, Total, Underdog, Teaser, and Player Prop)

Giving you the top bets across every time of wager for Sunday's NFL action.

Iain MacMillan | Oct 17, 2024

Sep 19, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; The Tennessee Titans offensive lines up for a play against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Throughout every week, I write oodles of articles breaking down my best bets across the NFL, including the "Road to 272 Bets" where I give you my best bet on a side or total for every single game each week.

In my weekly betting cheat sheet, I cut right to the chase. Here, I give you my favorite bet for every single type of wager including my top spread, total, underdog, teaser, and player prop for Sunday's Week 7 action.

Let's not waste any time and jump right into it.

NFL Week 7 Best Bets

All odds listed via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Spread Bet: Titans +9 (-110) vs. Bills
Best Total Bet: Patriots vs. Jaguars OVER 42.5 (-108)
Best Upset Pick: Raiders +245 vs. Rams
Best Teaser Bet: Lions +7.5 (vs. Vikings) and Bengals pick'em (vs. Browns)
Best Player Prop: Tony Pollard OVER 63.5 rush yards (-119)

Best Spread Bet: Titans +9 (-110) vs. Bills

The Titans' defense may be the least talked about and most underrated unit in the entire NFL right now. They lead the NFL in opponent success rate (36.2%) while also allowing the fewest yards per play (4.3) but yet they're underdogs of over a touchdown against an inconsistent Bills team.

Sure, the Tennessee offense is bad, but with how dominant their defense has been, I wouldn't feel comfortable laying this many points on any team against them. As we've seen in the past if a team can slow down the Bills' pass attack, which the Titans certainly can, things start getting hairy for Buffalo.

I'll take the points with the Titans.

Best Total Bet: Patriots vs. Jaguars OVER 42.5 (-108)

The Jaguars are starting to look like a picture-perfect "Over" team this season. A lot of the blame for their 1-5 record this season has fallen on their offense, but the Jaguars rank around the middle of the pack in most offensive metrics including 15th in yards per play (5.5). The real issue with Jacksonville has been its defense.

The Jaguars are 30th in opponent yards per play (6.0), 31st in opponent points per game (29.7), and dead last in opponent EPA per play (.175). Any game involving that poor of a defense, especially one that also has a competent offense, shouldn't have a total as low as 43.

Drake Maye looked solid in his rookie debut and the Patriots' offense already has more life than they did under Jacoby Brissett. He should find success against a much weaker defense this week and will do enough to contribute to this total going OVER 43 points.

Best Upset Pick: Raiders +245 vs. Rams

The Rams are still being evaluated by the betting market like they're a much better team than they are, so I'm going to take a shot on betting on the Raiders to win as underdogs at +245.

Let's not forget the injury issues the Rams are dealing with. Puka Nacua and Steve Avila won't return to action this week and Joe Noteboom is still questionable. They remain one of the most injured teams in the league and their metrics to date don't give me confidence they can start winning games. They're 30th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (-1.1), 17th in EPA per play, and 31st in opponent EPA per play.

The Raiders outrank them in virtually every single metric, including the three listed above, and in my opinion, shouldn't be this big of an underdog against a banged-up and underperforming Los Angeles squad.

Best Teaser Bet: Lions +7.5 (vs. Vikings) and Bengals pick'em (vs. Browns)

This might just be my favorite teaser bet of the season. As always, the number one thing we should try to do with six-point teasers is cross key numbers.

For the Lions, we are able to take them from +1.5 to +7.5 against the Vikings, which crosses the two major key numbers in three and seven. The Vikings' defense may be elite, but the Lions' offense is good enough to keep pace to, at the very least, keep this NFC North showdown within a touchdown.

For the Bengals, we can take them from -6 down to a pick'em, meaning we can eliminate the spread entirely and only worry about them winning the game. I don't know how the Browns will be able to move the ball offensively with their top weapon, Amari Cooper, now in Buffalo. The Bengals should have no issue winning this game against their AFC North rival.

Best Player Prop: Tony Pollard OVER 63.5 rush yards (-119)

The Bills have more issues than the public may realize. One of their biggest weak spots this season has been their run defense. They have allowed 5.3 yards per carry on the year, the most amongst all 32 teams. They also rank 22nd in opponent rush EPA. Breece Hall ran for 113 yards against them in Week 6, Derrick Henry went for 199 against them in Week 4, and even Travis Etienne posted 68 yards on 11 carries against them in Week 3.

That means Tony Pollard should be poised for a big game against them on Sunday. He has surpassed 63.5 rush yards in three of the Titan's five games this season while averaging 4.3 yards per rush attempt. He also averaged 15.6 carries per game so he'll get his fair share of chances against the Bills.