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NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Week 10 (Rams to No. 1? Bills Rising)
The halfway mark of the NFL season is here!
The Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals will wrap things up on Monday night in Week 9, but Sunday's slate was full of upsets, contenders making statement wins and a major change in this week's power rankings.
Sunday's marquee matchup was between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, and Josh Allen once again beat Patrick Mahomes in the regular season pushing Buffalo to 6-2 in 2025 -- firmly in the mix for the No. spot in the AFC.
Kansas City is just 5-4 going into the bye, and it's two games back of the Denver Broncos in the AFC West standings.
There were upsets across the board for contenders, as the Detroit Lions lost as 8.5-point favorites against the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers lost as 12.5-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers. Those wins put Carolina (5-4) and Minnesota (4-4) in the wild card mix in the NFC at the halfway mark of the season.
The top-five in this week's rankings are totally different, as a new team takes the top spot after Detroit and Kansas City lost in Week 9. Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams (6-2) are third in the odds to win the Super Bowl, and they're looking like the most complete team in a loaded NFC playoff picture.
Each week, I'll be power ranking every NFL team based on the odds to win the Super Bowl in the 2025 season. Here's a look at who is up and who is down after Sunday's Week 9 action.
NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
1. Los Angeles Rams (+750) LW: No. 5
A new No. 1! The Rams are now 6-2 and third in the odds to win the Super Bowl, blowing out the New Orleans Saints in Week 9.
Matthew Stafford has thrown 21 touchdowns in eight games, and the Rams have a top-5 defense in EPA/Play this season. This may be the most complete team in the NFC, and Stafford has a Super Bowl win to his name.
With Sean McVay leading the way, the Rams are an intriguing bet to win the Super Bowl this season.
2. Buffalo Bills (+600) LW: No. 6
Buffalo once again beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season, but will that happen in the playoffs?
Buffalo has the best odds in the league to win the Super Bowl, but it remains in second in its own division. Still, it's hard to bet on another quarterback (outside of Patrick Mahomes) over Josh Allen.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (+1000) LW: No. 3
The Eagles were on their bye in Week 9.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1900) LW: No. 9
The Buccaneers were on the bye in Week 9.
5. Detroit Lions (+950) Last Week: No. 1
Detroit lost as a major favorite to J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings, dropping to 5-3 in the 2025 season. The Lions are +950 to win the Super Bow, which remains in the top five in the latest odds.
6. New England Patriots (+2800) LW: No. 10
New England is officially in contender status, even though it just barely beat the Falcons in Week 9. The Patriots are 7-2 and atop the AFC East, and have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league.
Drake Maye is in the MVP mix, and the Patriots are tied for the best record in the league.
7. Kansas City Chiefs (+600) LW: No. 3
The Chiefs remain in the top group to win the Super Bowl, but they now have four losses heading into their Week 10 bye. KC is likely looking at a wild card spot, unless both the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers falter down the stretch.
8. Denver Broncos (+1600) LW: No. 8
They did it again.
Denver erased a late 15-7 deficit to win on a last-second field goal against the Houston Texans, moving to 7-2 on the season. At first place in the AFC West with an elite defense, the Broncos remain in the No. 8 spot this week.
9. Green Bay Packers (+950) LW: No. 7
Green Bay had yet another puzzling game in Week 9, losing at home as a double-digit favorite against Carolina. The Packers are still +950 to win the Super Bowl (down from +800), but they are tough to trust at that price given the up-and-down nature of their season.
10. Seattle Seahawks (+1100) LW: No. 12
Seattle is firmly in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the NFC after blowing out Washington on Sunday night. Sam Darnold threw for four scores, and the Seahawks jumped from +2200 to +1100 to win the Super Bowl in the process.
11. Indianapolis Colts (+1000) LW: No. 4
Daniel Jones finally had a high-turnover game, and the Colts lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the process. Now, Indy is in danger of losing the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the Broncos and Patriots both at 7-2 as well.
12. San Francisco 49ers (+3000) LW: No. 11
Kyle Shanahan's squad is now 6-3 in the 2025 season, going 5-2 in Mac Jones' seven starts. If Brock Purdy can return, San Fran is in the mix for a top seed in the NFC.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (+2800) LW: No. 13
The Chargers are now 6-3 in the 2025 season, knocking off Tennessee in Week 9. However, the team lost Joe Alt to another ankle injury, leaving the offensive line in shambles ahead of Week 10.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (+7000) LW: No. 14
The Steelers' defense finally came to play, turning over Daniel Jones multiple times in an upset win. Pittsburgh is 5-3 through nine weeks and in first place in the AFC North, keeping it in the No. 14 spot again this week.
15. Baltimore Ravens (+1800) LW: No. 16
Lamar Jackson is back, and so are the Ravens. Baltimore blew out Miami on Thursday night, winning its second game in a row out of the bye. The Ravens have a favorable schedule ahead that could get them right back in the mix to win the AFC North.
16. Chicago Bears (+12000) LW: No. 18
The Bears scored 47 points in Week 9, with Caleb Williams leading a late touchdown drive to move to 5-3. There are a lot of concerns with Williams' shakiness as a passer and Chicago's defense, but the record is the record. Chicago is in the mix to make the playoffs in the NFC.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (+6000) LW: No. 19
Jacksonville survived overtime against the Las Vegas Raiders, winning 30-29 behind two rushing scores from Trevor Lawrence. It wasn't pretty, but the Jags remain in the mix to make the playoffs in the AFC at 5-3.
18. Carolina Panthers (+20000) LW: No. 21
Carolina is 5-3 when Bryce Young starts this season, and it pulled off the upset of the week, beating the Packers as 12.5-point underdogs.
Carolina remains a fringe playoff team in the NFC, and it's defense shut down a vaunted Green Bay offense in Week 9. In a weak NFC South, Carolina should be in the mix to make a playoff push in the second half of the season.
19. Minnesota Vikings (+12000) LW: No. 23
The return of J.J. McCarthy brought the Vikings back to .500 in the 2025 season, as he threw two scores and ran for another to upset the Detroit Lions.
Minnesota is still on the outside of the playoff picture, but McCarthy clearly raises the ceiling of this offense a bit entering Week 10.
20. Dallas Cowboys (+20000) LW: No. 17
The Cowboys are 3-4-1 heading into their Monday night matchup with the Arizona Cardinals.
21. Houston Texans (+9000) LW: No. 15
Houston lost to Denver on Sunday to fall to 3-5, and it lost CJ Stroud (concussion) in the process. Now, Houston is several games out of both first place in the AFC South and in the wild card race.
This season might be a lost one for DeMeco Ryans' club.
22. Washington Commanders (+30000) LW: No. 20
A blowout loss in Week 9 may have spelled the end of Washington's season. The Commanders are now 3-6, and Jayden Daniels was hurt again against Seattle. This team is an extreme long shot to make the playoffs in the NFC.
23. Atlanta Falcons (+30000) LW: No. 22
The Falcons' season is fading fast, as they've lost three games in a row and are now just 3-5 in the 2025 season. Michael Penix Jr. played arguably his best game of the season, throwing three scores to Drake London, but a missed extra point doomed the Falcons on Sunday.
They're facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs in the NFC.
24. Cincinnati Bengals (+80000) LW: No. 24
The Cincinnati Bengals' defense let them down once again, as they gave up a whopping 47 points to the Bears in Week 9. Now, Cincy is just 3-6 and appears to have no chance to make the playoffs in the AFC, as it cannot get a stop.
Joe Flacco was awesome for most of Sunday, but putting up 42 points wasn't enough to get the Bengals a fourth win this season, the second week in a row Cincy lost putting up 38 or more points.
25. New York Giants (+100000) LW: No. 25
Brian Daboll's Giants were beaten by double digits by Mac Jones and the San Francisco 49ers, but Jaxson Dart has continued to look like a quarterback the franchise can build around in the future.
26. Arizona Cardinals (+40000) LW: No. 26
Arizona has lost five games in a row, and it'll start Jacoby Brissett for the third straight game with Kyler Murray (foot) still banged up. Arizona takes on Dallas on Monday night in Week 9.
27. Cleveland Browns (+80000) LW: No. 27
The Cleveland Browns were on a bye in Week 9.
28. Las Vegas Raiders (+100000) LW: No. 30
The Raiders fought hard in Week 9 with Brock Bowers (three TD catches) back, but they lost when going for two (and the win) against the Jaguars in OT. Geno Smith played much better with Bowers healthy, and the Raiders are hoping they can get something rolling on offense in the second half of the 2025 season.
29. New Orleans Saints (+100000) LW: No. 28
The Saints didn't get much going in Tyler Shough's first start, and Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams diced them all game long. New Orleans is a real candidate to end up with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
30. Miami Dolphins (+100000) LW: No. 29
Chris Grier is out as the general manager of the Dolphins after an embarrassing loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. Tua Tagovailoa may be in danger of getting benched, the Dolphins could end up having a fire sale at the trade deadline with their season all but over.
31. New York Jets (+100000) LW: No. 31
The New York Jets were on a bye in Week 9.
32. Tennessee Titans (+100000) LW: No. 32
The Tennessee Titans hung around early with the Los Angeles Chargers, but they ultimately came up short, scoring just three points in the second half in a 27-20 loss.
Tennessee has just one win this season, and it's hard to find another on the team's schedule with how much it's struggled on both sides of the ball in the 2025 season.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.