NFL Thanksgiving Parlay Picks for All Three Games

A five-leg parlay to bet on for NFL Thanksgiving Day

The Chiefs are road favorites against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Thanksgiving Day might just be the best football day of the year. Find a spot on the couch with Turkey and a pile of your favorite sides, place a few bets, and enjoy the action.

This year's slate is arguably the best in recent memory, with all three games being a meaningful matchup between solid teams. Before the action starts at 1 pm ET between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, be sure to lock in your bets.

In this article, I'm going to give you my top five plays that you can parlay together for a fun ticket to cheer for today.

Thanksgiving Day NFL Parlay

• Packers vs. Lions UNDER 49.5
• Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards
• Chiefs -3.5 vs. Cowboys
• Patrick Mahomes OVER 267.5 Passing Yards
• Bengals +7 vs. Ravens

Parlay Odds: +2029

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Packers vs. Lions UNDER 49.5

I'm surprised to see the total in this game is set so high. Usually, these high totals are reserved for games that include two elite offenses and two average-at-best defenses, when in reality, the two defenses in this game are just as good as the offenses. The Lions' defense ranks sixth in DVOA, and the Packers' defense ranks ninth. The Packers have also allowed the second-fewest yards per play at 4.6, and the Lions are ninth at 5.1. Green Bay also ranks fifth in scoring defense, allowing only 18.4 points per game. This total is a couple of points too high in my opinion, give me the UNDER.

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs is finally being treated as the primary running back in Detroit. He played 72.9% of snaps two weeks ago and then 73.5% of snaps this past week against the Giants. Those were the first two games all season he’s played 70%+ snaps. Now he gets to face a Packers defense that ranks 12th in opponent rush EPA and 17th in opponent rush success rate. Gibbs is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and 86.5 rushing yards per game, so we're not asking too much from him to gain 70+ yards on the ground in this game.

Chiefs -3.5 vs. Cowboys

I'm not ready to buy in on the Cowboys. I understand they've been better defensively since the trade deadline, but a win against the Las Vegas Raiders and the Philadelphia Eagles with some offensive issues isn't enough for me to buy this team. Meanwhile, I believe the Chiefs are underrated in the betting market for the first time in a long time. While their record isn't nearly as good as last season, the Chiefs' underlying metrics are significantly better, including ranking fifth in overall DVOA and 11th in Net Yards per Play, both of which are far better than they ranked last season.

Let's not forget how bad the Cowboys' secondary has been. They rank 27th in opponent dropback success rate and 26th in opponent dropback EPA. They've also allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt at 7.3. The Chiefs have only faced one defense this season that ranks in the bottom 10 in that stat. It was the Commanders' back on Oct. 27, and the Chiefs won 28-7 behind 299 passing yards by Patrick Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 267.5 Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes is averaging 270.6 passing yards per game this season, three more yards than his set total for this game. He'll face a Cowboys run defense that has improved since the trade deadline, but their secondary is still weak, ranking 27th in opponent dropback EPA and opponent dropback success rate. It's also worth noting the Chiefs have played just one secondary that ranks in the bottom 10 of the NFL. It was the Commanders, whom Mahomes threw for 299 yards against en route to a 28-7 victory.

Bengals +7 vs. Ravens

The Ravens are on a five-game win streak, but wins against the Bears, Dolphins, Vikings, Browns, and Jets don't tell us a lot about how good this team is, especially given the fact that they failed to cover against both the Browns and Jets. Lamar Jackson hasn't been himself either. He hasn't had a completion percentage better than 58.6% over his last three games, hasn't reached 200 yards through the air, and has combined for just 71 rushing yards since coming back from injury.

Joe Burrow is expected to return for the Bengals, and while they won't have Tee Higgins, a fresh Ja'Marr Chase will be ready to go after his one-week suspension. I'm not going to tell you the Bengals win this game, but with it being over that magic number of seven, I'll take the points with Cincinnati in this AFC North showdown.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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