NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 11 (Bet Seahawks to Upset Rams in NFC West Showdown)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 13, 2025

NFL Upsets picks for Week 11. / Nic Antaya/Getty Images; Cooper Neill/Getty Images

The Week 10 edition of SI's round table upset picks article cashed in on two different underdog winners. Clare Brennan correctly called the Patriots taking down the Buccaneers, and Peter Dewey hit on the Eagles beating the Packers on Monday Night Football.

We move on to Week 11 and our panelists are back with their top upset picks for Sunday's NFL action.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
• Clare Brennan, NFL Associate Editor
• Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
• Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor

Gilberto Manzano Week 11 Upset Pick

Chicago Bears (+140) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Bears are a much better team than the one that blew a double-digit lead at home against the Vikings in Week 1. More importantly, Caleb Williams is significantly better than J.J. McCarthy. It appears Williams has finally turned a corner after putting the Bears on his back during the comeback win against the Giants last week. Chicago has won four consecutive one-score games since the loss to Minnesota. 

Clare Brennan Week 11 Upset Pick

Detroit Lions (+124) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Lions will face arguably their toughest test of the season in Philadelphia on Sunday night. The Eagles’ revamped defense gave the Packers trouble Sunday night, holding Green Bay to 261 total yards. Detroit’s O-line will be under pressure and will look to follow up on an impressive Week 10 outing against the middling Commanders. The Lions’ offense looked renewed as Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties from OC John Morton. It remains to be seen if Campbell will continue to call plays in Philly. Still, the Lions will need to be explosive against the Eagles, who have the potential to exploit Detroit’s depleted secondary in the air. 

Matt Verderame Week 11 Upset Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (+132) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

After losing a 29-10 fourth-quarter lead to the Texans last week, Jacksonville comes into Week 11 tied for the final playoff spot and in desperation mode. Additionally, the Chargers have to cross the country after playing on Sunday night, and are doing so without their star tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, both of whom are out for the year. This is a moment for Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen to shine, who have combined for four sacks and 20 quarterback hits off the edge for Jacksonville this season.

Iain MacMillan Week 11 Upset Pick

Seattle Seahawks (+138) vs. Los Angeles Rams

I'm putting my money where my mouth is on the Seattle Seahawks being the best team in the NFL. They lead the league in DVOA and Net Yards per Play, sporting a Net Yards per Play of +0.4 yards more than any other team in the league. Sam Darnold also leads all teams in EPA+CPOE composite. They've managed to do all that despite ranking 23rd in average turnover margin at -0.4. The lack of forcing turnovers has hurt their EPA numbers, whereas the Rams haven't played as well on a play-by-play basis, but their +0.8 average turnover differential boosts their EPA numbers.

If the turnover variance turns in the Seahawks' favor, they're going to quickly look like the team to beat in the NFC. I think they prove just how good they are by beating the Rams in Week 11.

Peter Dewey Week 11 Upset Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+225) vs. Buffalo Bills

Tampa Bay is coming off a loss at home to the New England Patriots, but it still ranks eighth in the NFL in EPA/Play on defense and 13th in EPA/Play on offense heading into this game against the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo lost as an 8.5-point favorite against Miami in Week 10, and it’s fallen to 19th in the NFL in EPA/Play defensively. The Bills are also just 4-5 against the spread this season and 0-3 against the number when favored at home.

Tampa Bay’s offense should be able to move the ball against Buffalo, and Dalton Kincaid's injury raises some serious questions about how the Buffalo offense will fare against a Tampa Bay team that ranks eighth in EPA/Rush and 11th in EPA/Pass. I think the Bucs are worth a shot at this price in Week 11.

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