NFL Week 3 Best Bets (Predictions for Jets vs. Buccaneers, Cowboys vs. Bears on Sunday)

The SI Betting team breaks down their favorite bets for Week 3 of the NFL season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Baker Mayfield are favored in their home opener in Week 3. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Week 2 was another week of heartbreak for underdogs in the NFL, as the SI Betting team saw a brutal beat in the Jacksonville Jaguars-Cincinnati Bengals matchup to lose a Jags +3.5 bet. 

But, we move on to a loaded Week 3 slate with some plays for Sunday. 

This year, Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey are going to share their favorite plays for Sunday’s action each and every week. 

There are plenty of great matchups on Sunday, including divisional matchups in the NFC West (Arizona vs. San Francisco) and AFC West (Denver vs. Los Angeles) that could end up holding major weight later on in the season. 

Underdogs have not been kind to us early on in the 2025 season, so this week we're backing a couple of favorites, including our first moneyline pick of the year! 

Let’s dive into the breakdowns for each pick in Week 3 of the 2025 season. 

NFL Best Bets for Week 3

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook.

• Dallas Cowboys Moneyline (-118) vs. Chicago Bears – Peter Dewey
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-115) vs. New York Jets – Iain MacMillan

Dallas Cowboys Moneyline (-118) vs. Chicago Bears – Peter Dewey

Depending upon when you bet on this game, there’s a chance that you were able to grab the Dallas Cowboys as underdogs on the road in Week 3 against the Chicago Bears.

Dallas is now favored by 1.5 points, but I’m simply going to bet on Dallas to win outright at (-118) on Sunday.

Dallas’ offense hung 37 points on the Giants in Week 2, and it should have a field day against a Bears team that has been pretty shaky on both sides of the ball this season.

Chicago is 28th in EPA/Play on offense and 26th in EPA/Play on defense. Even if Caleb Williams and the Bears can score on this Dallas defense – which gave up 34 points to the Giants in Week 2 – I’m not sure they’ll be able to keep up with Dak Prescott and company.

Dallas is 11th in EPA/Play on offense this season, and it hung tough with a Super Bowl-caliber Philadelphia Eagles team in Week 1. 

No matter how high you were on the Bears entering this season, those expectations have to come down after a dreadful first two weeks. I’ll trust Dallas to get the win and move to 2-1. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-115) vs. New York Jets – Iain MacMillan

This game is a stylistic dream for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are ready to play their first home game of the season. 

They have done a fantastic job shutting down the run through the first two weeks, keeping opponents to gaining just 3.3 yards per carry. 

Now, they face a run-first Jets team that has ran the ball on 55.05% plays in their first two games. The Jets also won't find the same success rushing the passer as the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans did, leaving Baker Mayfield more time to throw the ball down the field. 

Tampa Bay wins this one running away.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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