Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Bet the OVER in Lightning vs. Penguins)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 12, 2025

Bet the OVER in Sunday's game between the Lightning and Penguins. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Don't let the NFL Playoffs distract you from the fact the NHL is entering the season half of its season.

There are a handful of games set to take place today and if you're looking for a few bets to place, I have you covered, I have bets locked in on three of them, including a bet on the OVER between the Lightning and Penguins in a game that I think will be a high-scoring affair.

Let's dive into them.

• Season-to-date record: 84-83-6 (-6.5 units)

NHL Best Bets Today

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Stars -135 vs. Senators
• Lightning vs. Penguins OVER 6.5 (-125)
• Wild vs. Golden Knights UNDER 6 (-110)

Stars vs. Senators Prediction

Based on the advanced metrics, this is a lop-sided affair so I won't hesitate to back the Stars. Over their last 25 games, the Stars rank fifth in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage while the Senators rank 22nd in that time frame.

The Senators have struggled to find the back of the net of late, scoring just 1.92 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. They now rank 28th in shooting percentage of their last 25 games, scoring on only 9.28% of their shots on goal.

I'll back the Stars to get the job done in Ottawa.

Pick: Stars -135

Lightning vs. Penguins Prediction

The Lightning and Penguins have been two of the highest scoring teams in the NHL this season so if you like goals, you're going to want to tune in to this game. Over each team's last 25 games, these two teams rank first and fifth in goals scored per 60 minutes, combining for an average 6.88 goals.

A big reason for both teams racking up goals on a nightly basis has been their special teams play. The Lightning are fourth in power play percentage and the Penguins are right behind them in fifth.

Let's sit back and root for goals in this Eastern Conference showdown.

Pick: OVER 6.5 (-125)

Wild vs. Golden Knights Prediction

The Vegas Golden Knights have established themselves as one of the best defensive teams in the NHL allowing only 2.38 goals per 60 minutes of play in their last 25 games. The Minnesota Wild are also a strong defensive team, limiting their opponents to only 10.08 high-danger scoring chances per game.

Meanwhile, both teams rank in the bottom half of the NHL in shooting percentage in their last 25 games, including the Golden Knights who are finding the back of the net on just 9.43% of shots on goal. Let's take the UNDER in this Western Conference matchup.

Pick: UNDER 6 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!