Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Fade Overvalued Maple Leafs vs. Devils)

The Maple Leafs are home underdogs to the Devils on Thursday night.
The Maple Leafs are home underdogs to the Devils on Thursday night. / Luther Schlaifer-Imagn Images

We took another step in the direction getting back in the green on Wednesday night, going 1-1 in the two games but cashing in on the Sabres as big +175 underdogs to give us a +0.75 unit profit on the night.

Let's keep the momentum going the right direction as we target Thursday's loaded slate. There are three road teams I'm betting on tonight, including the Devils to get past the Maple Leafs in Toronto. Let's take a look at the plays.

  • Season-to-date record: 91-88-6 (-4.92 units)

NHL Picks Today

  • Devils -120 vs. Maple Leafs via FanDuel
  • Flyers +115 vs. Islanders via BetMGM
  • Kings -115 vs. Canucks via BetMGM

Devils vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

Now is a great time to sell high on the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are not only overperforming but will now miss John Tavares to injury for some time. Strong goaltending and shooting can only take a team so far and regression is on the horizon for the Leafs. Not only do the Devils outrank the Leafs in almost every advanced metric, but the Leafs power play unit has been on a cold streak and now they have to face one of the best power plays in the league, giving New Jersey a significant advantage on special teams.

Over the last 25 games, the Devils lead the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage while the Leafs rank 22nd. That's all you need to know to bet the Devils as road favorites tonight.

Pick: Devils -120

Flyers vs. Islanders Prediction

I'm back on the Flyers tonight, who continue to post some impressive numbers, including ranking second in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage over their last 25 games. Now, they're set as road underdogs against an Islanders team that has a ton of issues.

The most glaring issue for New York is it ranks dead last in the league in both power play and penalty kill, which leaves them vulnerable on special teams against any and every opponent they face. As long as the Flyers goaltending doesn't let them down yet again tonight, they should be in a great spot to win.

Pick: Flyers +115

Kings vs. Canucks Prediction

Over their last 25 games, the Los Angeles Kings rank fifth in CORSI%, sixth in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage, sixth in 5-on-5 high-danger scoring chances differential, and second in team save percentage. The Canucks in that same time frame rank 28th, 25th, 31st, and 23rd in those respective categories.

If I lined those teams up in a blind resume and said Team A was only a -115 favorite, you'd take that bet ten times out of ten. So, that's exactly what we're going to do here. Despite these two teams being close in the standings, Los Angeles is the far superior team from an analytics perspective so let's trust the numbers tonight.

Pick: Kings -115


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!


Published
Iain MacMillan
IAIN MACMILLAN

Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.