NL Rookie of the Year Odds: Jackson Merrill Surging to Catch Paul Skenes in Shocking Odds Movement

Reed Wallach | Aug 13, 2024

Aug 11, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) celebrates after scoring against the Miami Marlins during the seventh inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

As the summer comes to a close, a shocking development is brewing in National League Rookie of the Year. 

After appealing to be a runaway winner of Rookie of the Year, Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes has seen his odds shrink from -6000 to -400 in the span of a week while San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill has moved to +185 to win the award. 

Skenes has seen his numbers tick down since starting the All-Star Game and the Pirates are in the midst of a tailspin that has many questioning if the team shuts down its superstar pitcher. Meanwhile, Merrill has been on a tear since the All-Star break, including making several game winning plays to propel the Padres firmly into the postseason. 

Here’s the updated odds for NL Rookie of the Year from FanDuel Sportsbook. 

2024 National League Rookie of the Year Odds

• Paul Skenes -220
• Jackson Merrill: +150
• Shota Imanaga: +5000
• Jackson Courio: +6000

Jackson Merrill's Hot Steak Makes NL Rookie of the Year Competitive Race with Paul Skenes

Skenes has seen his velocity drop since the All-Star break, making many question if he is slowing down after a historic start to his big league career. 

Pre All-Star Break: 11 starts, 1.90 ERA, 89 strikeouts, 48 hits

Post All-Star Break: 4 starts, 3.16 ERA, 26 strikeouts, 20 hits

With his numbers coming back to the pack, Skenes has seen his lead evaporate in the eyes of oddsmakers. Merrill’s fine play also is part of the turn. 

While the Padres outfielder has been playing fine baseball all season, he has turned it on since the unofficial start of the second half of the season. 

Pre All-Star Break: 331 at bats .278/.310/.435, 12 home runs, 46 RBI’s

Post All-Star Break: 78 at bats .333/.364/.667, five home runs, 18 RBI’s

Merrill has been making clutch plays as well, including on Monday night when he made a diving catch to end the Pirates comeback bid in the ninth inning. 

Jackson Merrill is so good. Incredible in the clutch, at the plate and in center field, a position he never played until spring training this year. A star in the making. https://t.co/i1pA83O1JI

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 13, 2024

Skenes now is being judged as a regular candidate as the shine wares off his season long stats. While Baseball Reference gives him the nod in WAR (3.7) to Merrill (3.0), FanGraphs prefers the Padres' outfielder, giving him a similar edge (Merrill is 3.4 in fWAR while Skenes is 2.6).

If Skenes continues to slow down, there will be louder whispers about the Pirates, losers of eight straight and now six out of the NL Wild Card, shutting down the prospect and for Merrill to continue to compile stats that can outpace the pitcher.

The market has corrected quickly on Skenes' downplay, and the pressure is on him to perform on Friday in his next scheduled start against the Mariners to remain the NL ROY favorite.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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