North Carolina vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds and Key Player to Watch for Tuesday, Dec. 2

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the North Carolina-Kentucky matchup in college basketball on Tuesday night.

North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis. / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

The ACC/SEC men’s basketball challenge features a battle of a pair of top-25 teams on Tuesday night, as the North Carolina Tar Heels hit the road to play the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena.

It’s been a rough start to the season for Mark Pope’s Kentucky squad, as it is just 5-2 this season, losing to Michigan State and Louisville in its two real tests in the 2025-26 campaign.

Despite that, oddsmakers have the Wildcats set as 8.5-point against the No. 16 Tar Heels, who knocked off Kansas earlier this season but also lost to Michigan State (by 16) in their last game.

Will this be a bounce-back spot for Kentucky at home? KenPom still has the Wildcats as the No. 11 team in the country (based on their adjusted efficiency margin) entering this matchup. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this battle between two of the best teams in the country. 

North Carolina vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• UNC +8.5 (-110)
• Kentucky -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• UNC: +275
• Kentucky: -345

Total

• 159.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

North Carolina vs. Kentucky How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Dec. 2
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Rupp Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• UNC record: 6-1
• Kentucky record: 5-2 

North Carolina vs. Kentucky Key Player to Watch

Denzel Aberdeen, Guard, Kentucky

A transfer from Florida, Aberdeen is the Wildcats’ leading scorer so far in the 2025-26 season 

He’s averaging 14.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 53.0 percent from the field and 38.7 percent from beyond the arc. A key bench piece for the Gators during their national title run last season, Aberdeen has stepped into a bigger role in Kentucky and is thriving. 

He scored 26 points on 10-of-20 shooting in the team’s loss to Louisville earlier this season, but he struggled in the loss to Michigan State, shooting just 1-for-8 from the field. The Wildcats need Aberdeen to have a big game on Tuesday if they want to cover the number against UNC. 

North Carolina vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

UNC is without captain Seth Trimble right now due to a broken arm, which could be the reason why oddsmakers are so high on Kentucky in this matchup.

However, the Wildcats have failed to cover in both of their matchups against ranked opponents this season, and they are 5-2 despite facing the No. 322 strength of schedule (in terms of KenPom’s net rating) in the country.

Mark Pope admitted earlier this season that he wishes his team was further along at this point, and that doesn’t bode well for Kentucky covering a massive spread – even at home – against a ranked opponent.

UNC beat Kansas and potential top-five pick Darryn Peterson earlier this season, and it ranks inside the top 50 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Kentucky has beat up on some bad teams this season, but until we see the Wildcats defeat a high-major opponent, they’re tough to trust at this number. 

Pick: North Carolina +8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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